tempterrain
Pardon me for interjecting myself into an exchange you were hoping to start with our host, but this phrase you wrote caught my eye:
However, the change which is looming now, anthropogenically induced, will happen much quicker than anything previously experienced so it does make sense to treat that as a special case.
Extreme weather events can cause problems for humans, particularly those in poorer countries, who have less resources available to forecast and adapt (Dr. Curry’s point).
Fortunately the human toll to extreme weather events has decreased markedly over the 20th century (Goklany), partly as a result of better forecasting and adaptation possibilities.
But we should be aware that these events will continue to always be with us in the future, as they were in the past, and Dr. Curry’s suggestions on better forecasting to allow for local adaptation if and when required are very well made.
Now to the hypothesis that human-induced climate change from fossil fuel combustion might result in a perceptible increase in the incidence or severity of extreme weather events, there are no empirical data to support this premise. It is purely based on model simulations, which have shown to be extremely poor in forecasting our planet’s climate, let alone severe weather events that might result from a change in climate.
Preparing for extreme weather events makes sense.
Treating those purported events caused by AGW as a “special case” as you suggest does not.
Just my opinion, of course.
Max.