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Comment on Reducing the future to climate by ferd berple

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“greater effort should be made to represent these possibilities in any analysis about the significance of future climate change”

To allow for this, you must first provide a mathematical boundary on the size of the unknowns going forward. However, as it is generally accepted that the universes is for all practical purposes infinite, then the size of the unknown is also infinite – in other words you cannot place a boundary on what you don’t know.

In other words, no matter how many possibilities you account for, it will be the ones you didn’t account for that are most likely to occur. Here is a simple demonstration:

let:
n = size of what you know or can imagine
infinity = size of what you have not imagined

then:
n / infinity = 0 = probability of your choices representing the future
(infinity – n) / infinity = 1 = probability something you haven’t imagined representing the future


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