“While the IPCC has yet to make use of them, there are methods that allow an even more precise characterization of uncertainties. “Expert elicitation” involves a set of techniques first developed in the decision analytic community. ”
It is acknowledged that there are cognitive biases at work that make this less reliable- however it has been my experience that the largest bias is in how the question was framed to the experts.
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Comment on Climatic Change special issue on uncertainty guidance for the IPCC: Part II by Patrick Moffitt
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