Dr. Page I find your view interesting and will make a note.
If the raw data, 10 years from now, shows cooling I will be sure to remind people who called it.
10 years from now the government climate data that is homogenized, pasteurized, sweetened, and condensed (they treat temperature data like milk) will of course show warming.
Howard,
Interesting links. Why do you know this stuff?
Prove it in a paper. Good luck.
Basil – Looks like you didn’t read my comment. Let’s try again:
—
How about adding – on the left side of your graph – a plot of temperatures all the way back to the peak of the MWP.
Then, we’ll see how significant the trend over the past 104 years speaks to us.
–
Some surface thermometers measure the volume of mercury, some the millivolts across dissimilar metals, just as the sats measure microwaves,
It is a valid measure of temperature, just like the rest, and is checked against radiosonde data.
The big advantage is that sats sample much, much, much more of the area of the Earth. Much better sampling!! Much better data. Much more reliable. Correlates with radiosonde data.
What’s not to like? (It’s an inconvenient truth for a few people here apparently.)
The papers have already been written.
Peter Lang,
We are on an endless quest to create order, and we will continue to use more power to do so.
I haven’t reviewed this site yet, but I have read the entertaining book “The Bottomless Well”.
http://www.manhattaninstitute.org/pdf/Energy_and_Environment_Myths.pdf
Hi there. One of my sons has recently moved back from Scotland to South Aisteralia. Just in time for the current bush fires, but so far his rural property in the Adelaide hills has not been affected.
Long before prop;e started blaming warming for the bush fires in SA they misguidedly planted Pine trees there. Nlow eucalllypts just shrug off bushfites but Pines love them and burn fiercly. Big mistake.
The Bottomless Well by Huber and Mills
“Who should should they rely on and why?” The accountants. Because a lot of the problems and proposals come down to money. The results so far dollar wise, haven’t been much to brag about.
Judith you really need to ban the serial thread abusers (chief among them being expert troll Mosher). When this blog started out there quite were a lot of sensible comments but now it is sheer blather from end to end. Remember you are being associated with these people whether you like it or not.
To All,
Sub-seasonal hedging in the commodities markets for derivatives linked to energy or agriculture (including livestock).
Sub-season route choices for long-distance shipping of anything, especially by ocean-going vessel (it is about a 2-week trip from Shanghai to Los Angeles, for example).
In the U.S. retail arena, sub-season route choices and shipping dates for the year-end shipping crunch (both for stocking stores in advance of Black Friday post-Thanksgiving and for X-Mas deliveries to consumers). This overlaps with route choices for long-distance shipping if the goods are manufactured overseas.
One-two month early warning for storm surge/flood protection risks, especially during hurricane/typhoon season.
Better resource availability for infrastructure repair required due to extreme weather (e.g., human and physical resources for water main breaks and road repair due to extended freezes, and better stockpiled availability of salt and de-icing chemicals for previously unpredictable extended snow and ice events).
Regards,
MK
John Vonderlin – “…Orange juice futures…”
Too late, Clarence Beeks already nailed this one.
Skip the advert.
Well you may already be aware of this guy. He does have one paper or lecture toward the very bottom in 2010 about subseasonal and pests in Switzerland but the whole of the papers seems along the lines of what your talking about:
ice-ca-what?
Vaughan Pratt, : Springer raises a good point. The crucial question here is whether this decrease in lapse rate driven by increasing absolute humidity (quantity of water vapor) overwhelms the greenhouse effect or is too tiny to be significant.
The theoretical decrease in lapse rate for a global warming (increase in surface temperature) of 10 °C is plotted on the left of Figure 5 of An Analytical Model for Tropical Relative Humidity by David Romps, J. Climate, 27, 7432-7449 (1 Oct. 2014). Romps plots two cases: no evaporation of precipitation (α = 0), and 50% evaporation (α = 0.5).
thank you for the link to the Romps paper
From the abstract: An analytical model is derived for tropical relative humidity using only the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, hydrostatic balance, and a bulk-plume water budget. This theory is constructed for radiative–convective equilibrium and compared against a cloud-resolving model. With some reinterpretation of variables, it can be applied more generally to the entire tropics.
The principle limitation of these lapse rate computations is that they are based on a thermodynamic equilibrium (C-C) that never exists. There is a persistent transfer of energy and water (hence latent energy) from the surface to the upper troposphere via evaporation and wet thermals, and none of the models is a model of that rate of energy and water transport. The total energy transported that way, evapotranspiration, is greater than the energy transported by radiation (Stephens et al, Trenberth et al energy flow diagrams), so the omission is non-negligible. How that transport changes with CO2 or temperature change has hardly been studied. The Romps et al science paper on changes in lightning strike rate is just one of only a few beginnings. The C-C approximation is not necessarily always bad (may be good on cool, sunny, cloudless days), but it is wretched when there are squalls, thunderclouds, and rain storms — i.e. when the rate of non-radiative transfer of energy from surface is greatest.
I have no idea what you mean by probabilistic. I know of no one who calculates probabilities when they make measurements or make decisions. Buying groceries would take forever. This is a mistaken metaphor at best.
Outdoor wedding planners. But they would probably want to see your model’s track record, before shelling out. Newsletters predicting various things, often are profitable. An ensemble of newsletters usually works best.
Judith, I an trying to think of uses for 1-2 month forecasts on my farm. Not coming up with much.
Short term weather forecasts are essential for planting, spraying, haying, harvest decisions. Where folks have center pivot irrigation, whether to turn the system on or wait for rain.
Seasonal forcasts help decide things like cultivar selection ( maturity length especially).
One to two months? Not many decisions depend on that time frame.
