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Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by GaryM

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In American Sniper, Chris Kyle tells his son there are three kinds of people. Sheep, wolves and sheep dogs. The real story of snowmageddon isn’t the weather, it’s the degree to which the citizens of New York have become sheep, and have elected a power hungry wolf as their mayor.

It wasn’t enough to have a mayor who “protected” them from their right to drink Big Gulps. No, he wasn’t autocratic enough. So they elected a full blown socialist demagogue (Obama without the pretense) who took the first opportunity to show everyone in the city who really runs their lives.


Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by Steven Mosher

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by Joshua

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An interesting aspect to all this, IMO, is that it’s likely that as people rely on forecasts because they’re more accurate, we’ll here more whining and see more finger-pointing when forecasts are wrong (as, obviously, will result due to margins of error).

In the past, people would hear a forecast and assume with a higher probability that they would be wrong. Thus, when they were wrong, no one took particular notice. As people have a higher expectation for accuracy, the occasions when they’re wrong seem more significant.

It’s my guess that over time, forecasts have gotten more accurate, and extended a given measure of accuracy to longer time periods.

It’s also amusing how as people eat up weather news with greater appetite (living in NY, we checked with our cable company on Monday night to find out whether we got the Weather Channel), they also like to blame “the media” for their own consumption of more weather news.

It seems that nothing feels quite so good for people as to find someone to blame for something.

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by RiHo08

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johanna

Cold is the issue these days, cold and wind. The wind chill is reported by the weather people. Schools closed or not depending on wind chill as the kids have to stand outside and wait for the bus. Snow accumulation is an issue only in regards to when in the night snow fell and was there enough time to have the roads plowed and salted to get the school busses through safely.

These days, cars come equipped with “all season” radial tires which means that they are generally good in all winter conditions except if you use your Jeep to plow yours and other’s driveways. The “snow tires” you can purchase as extra, usually have bigger gap tread design and a slightly different composition of rubber.

In the more rural regions, which, from my house is just a hop, skip and a jump away, there are little sheds at the end of driveways where kids will wait for the school bus to arrive so the child is out of the wind.

There are times when multiple feet of snow can bring our town to a standstill. Then, if you peek over the snowdrift in your front yard, you will see the cab of a mining size Caterpillar front end loader pass by a couple of times which means that your freshly cleared driveway is blocked as it meets the road and you have to go out and push some snow around again. And, if you really really need to get somewhere quick, you ring up for a snow mobile ride to your destination and back.

As far as groceries are concerned, Kroger’s will have likely run out of the brand of milk or bread you like, but, I guess you can live for a day or two without multi-grain whole wheat Thomas muffins and Organic 1% fat milk. Kroger’s brand of milk and bread tastes good on a wintery day, served with a little home-made berry jam (as a Christmas gift) from the neighbors.

BTW. I Skyped with my Sydney daughter the other day and she was declining our offer to have a family Christmas in Florida. She says she already has warm weather Christmases and she and her new Aussie husband want to have and “Old Fashion” winter Christmas, live tree and fir boughs decorations, and plenty of snow.

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by GaryM

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Lived in Chicago in ’67 with 4 brothers, and we had a really narrow but very long front yard. Two of us began shoveling from the house, and two from the street. After several hours we gave up and and left a big mound in the middle. We ended up cutting steps in both sides once it got hard packed so we could get in and out. Stayed that way for a couple weeks.

What a blast.

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by JustinWonder

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Clearly you are joking! :) When I was a kid we LOVED snow! School cancelled, sledding, snowball fights, ice skating, snow forts, get wet, go home to a warm house, mom’s cooking and baking … It was all good – the best day’s in my life.

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by JustinWonder

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by A fan of *MORE* discourse

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AMAZING BUT TRUE

Question  In the just-released 164-year HadCrut4 temperature-record …

…  how many HadCrut4 “hottest-year evers” are there?

Pick the best answer

A1  164 (every year the hottest-ever)

A2  55 (every third year is hottest-ever)

A3  32 (every fifth year is hottest-ever)

A4  16 (every tenth year is hottest-ever)

A5  8 (every twentieth year is hottest-ever)

Summary  Multi-decade climate-change “pauses” are the rule, not the exception.

And the “pause” intervals are shrinking faster than the world’s alpine glaciers, aren’t they?

Conclusion  Planners and politicians are wise to focus upon concrete long-term trends (climate-warming, ice-loss, seal-level-rise, ocean acidification) and ill-advised to focus upon ephemeral short-term trends (“snowpocalypses”, “pauses”, “climate-gate”)

Because nowadays, *EVERYONE* can see the long-term trends …

*THESE* sobering climate-change realities are evident to *ALL* rational skeptics, eh Climate Etc readers?

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Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by Chris in Ga

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Which one is JC? Judith Curry or Jim Cantore? I remember my sis-in-law (avid Weather Channel fan)10 yrs ago said every time a female weather reporter was out with Jim C. during an event, she was pregnant 6 months later

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by Craig Loehle

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Such a spinning low pressure system is like a top, subject to erratic movement. It only shifted 90 miles East compared to predicted and it did indeed produce 3 feet of snow in part of Mass. So not such a bad forecast. If it weren’t for NYC being so populous and filled with media, it would not be called so bad.
Interesting that it is ok to criticize this type of model but not the GCM type, which is trying to solve a much harder problem (global, long term, including oceans and radiation balance).

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by JCH

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I grew up in South Dakota in the 1950s and 1960s. Our weatherman was Captain Eleven. In my memory he was usually right. As you can see, he had a computer, and there are no oceans in South Dakota:

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by Chris in Ga

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You bring up a good point Kim. There is an analogy. Last year’s storm in Atlanta was predicted based on models that saw only the south half of Atlanta getting any significant amounts* and action was planned accordingly. The models were proved wrong when all of Atlanta was covered and the city and state were caught with their pants down. So Atlanta was an under-prediction and NYC was an over-prediction. Interesting to see what lessons will be learned comparing the two.

* In Atlanta, we define “significant amount” as seeing two flakes in a 60 second period.

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by Rud Istvan

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JS, there is also a problem of short memories leading to lack of perspective. In the Boston Blizzard of 1978 (a very similar storm) the metropolitan area got four feet, with drifts to 15 feet. I was there. It was forecast, people used common sense, and the only real difficulties were paralyzed emergency vehicle services for a couple of days. But do not recall any media hype like this time round. After all, Ben Franklin made an early contribution to understanding winter n’oreasters. Not something ‘historic’ or unusual.

The hysteria may not stem from NWS communication. They do a good job with hurricanes. It may be more societal.

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by Joshua

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==> “Interesting that it is ok to criticize this type of model but not the GCM type,..”

Yeah. It just kills me how all those “alarmists” and “warmists” say that it’s not ok to criticize GCMs. I mean it’s not like they disagree with the details of the criticisms presented, or anything like that. They always just say that any criticism itself is not ok.

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by A fan of *MORE* discourse

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Resolved  USMC General James N. Mattis teaches wiser lessons than Hollywood.

Letter to All Hands
March 23, 2004

We are going back in to the brawl!

We will be relieving [in Anbar Province] the magnificent Soldiers fighting under the 82nd Airborne Division, whose hard won successes in the Sunni Triangle have opened opportunities for us to exploit.

When its time to move a piano, Marines dont pick up the piano bench – we move the piano.

So this is the right place for Marines in this fight, where we can carry on the legacy of Chesty Puller in the Banana Wars in the same sort of complex environment that he knew in his early years.

This is going to be hard, dangerous work. It is going to require patient, persistent presence. Using our individual initiative, courage, moral judgment and battle skills, we will build on the 82nd Airbornes victories.

Our country is counting on us even as our enemies watch and calculate, hoping that America does not have warriors strong enough to withstand discomfort and danger.

You, my fine young men, are going to prove the enemy wrong—dead wrong. You will demonstrate the same uncompromising spirit that has always caused the enemy to fear Americas Marines.

The enemy will try to manipulate you into hating all Iraqis. Do not allow the enemy that victory.

With strong discipline, solid faith, unwavering alertness, and undiminished chivalry to the innocent, we will carry out this mission.

Remember, I have added, “First, Do No Harm” to our passwords of “No Better Friend, No Worse Enemy.”

Stay alert, take it all in stride, remain sturdy, and share your courage with each other and the world.

You are going to write history, my fine young Sailors and Marines, so write it well.

Semper Fidelis,
J. .N. Mattis, Major General, U. S. Marines

That is the real story … not the Hollywood story.

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Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by Joshua

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==> “It was forecast, people used common sense, and the only real difficulties were paralyzed emergency vehicle services for a couple of days.

Good point, Rud.

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by JustinWonder

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Zen koan: “Why is lithium rare in the solar system but common in the pharmacy?”

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by Steven Mosher

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by JustinWonder

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You right, adaptation is the answer. Homo sapiens sapiens can do that, dodos did not.

Comment on Snowpocalypse – not by GaryM

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