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Comment on Open thread by mosomoso

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I note in NARUC’s debate agenda the continued and deliberate use of slob terminology like “global warming” and “climate change”. Are they happening? Are they real? Well, duh.

You would think after all the billions, all the conferences, all the publishing, that these people would be willing to come up with a name for the problem they raise.

But asking if “climate change” is real just isn’t the same as asking if “significant and global human-caused climate disruption” is real. The second question leaves no back or side doors and it can actually be answered one way or another. No fun.

The climatariat say they want to use common terms in an “accepted” scientific sense. What they really want is wriggle room and slither space.


Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by Steven Mosher

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“Simulate that 1/6th of your stations have such a saw-toothed profile and see what happens.”

What? such a saw tooth?

here are some questions.

slope? what slopes do you test?
drops? what drops do you test?
segment to segment do the slopes have to be the same?
drop to drop do they have to be the same
segment length : how long a segment?
over what period of time can a drop occur?

You have the same problem in detecting them.

Suppose I have a segment 4 years long that has a linear trend
of 1.5C per century. What r^2?
then you have a drop in a month of .4C
does the drop have to be instaneous? over one month? 3 months?
How about the next segment.
Suppose it has a trend of 1.2C? with a different r^2
suppose it is only 3 years and 8 months?
Is that close enough to call it a sawtooth?
Suppose the next drop is .25C over 4 months? does that count?

So however I define the sawtooth you will come back and say wait
try THIS kind of sawtooth
And however I try to find them you will say.. wait? forget comparing the r^2 or the drop can happen over a 7 month period.. look for this.. look for that.

If people want to assert it is a problem the task is simple. They need to show there work. What do they assume a sawtooth is. define it. precisely.
Then they can take the code and show that it is a problem.
Then they can take that definition and iteratethrough the stations to find sawtooths interspersed with stations that have gradual rises.

Comment on Open thread by mosomoso

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One big thing we’ve learned from Scandinavian and German photovoltaic is that you can achieve stupendous success against daunting odds with the right Wiki editing.

Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by Curious George

Comment on Open thread by Tonyb

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Danny

Climate change, even though it is likely natural, is trivial compared to the pressures caused to the environment and resources by population increase.

Remember Band aid in 1984? Here are the population changes since then

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ethiopia-population/

A population of 34 million causing Famine in 1984 has ballooned to 95 million. How does a poor country keep pace with that? Only by industrialisation which improves living standards and reduces health problems and family size through ecucation

So mitigating climate change, even of it is noticeable, detrimental, or not made by man, is irrelevant besides other practical Things that can be done.

Solar panels? They have a place but what happens at night or when growing industry demands a bigger power source?

Tonyb

Comment on Open thread by Tonyb

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Mosomoso

Yeah, solar panels are a brilliant idea in countries that don’t get much sun.

Tonyb

Comment on Open thread by Rud Istvan

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Thanks for letting denizens know about this. I will read them and comment directly over there. DO events and Younger Dryas were going to be an essay on natural variability, so did a lot of reading up. Did not make the final book cut for various reasons.

Comment on Open thread by Rud Istvan

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Latimer, see my guest post here, Shell Games, or read the much longer essay of same title in the book. In short, Henry’S Law and LeChatellier’s principle says this is true. But oceans are an enormously buffered syste, so only a little true. And normal diurnal and seasonal pH variation caused by biological activity is much greater than the little than the little that is true.
And some godawful ( to the point of academic misconduct) have tried to raise the acidification alarm. Which is why I debunked them.


Comment on Open thread by ianl8888

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Please tell us how these 8 questions are chosen

Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by Scott

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Roger Sr.
Very sparse and poor data on the ocean and abyss. That is a problem with activist actions to raise energy costs and restrict fossil fuel use. Need more ARGO thoughout the world wide ocean and below 2000 m. Hugely expensive. Using surface temp averages and estimating the blank areas down to .01 accuracy gives something to present. Like looking for the lost quarter under the light pole instead of where it dropped bucause that is where one can sea.

Any increase in ARGO data coverage proposed?

Scott

Comment on Open thread by Tonyb

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Yes, which one of you will be spending their ten minutes putting todays climate into its wider historic context?

Tonyb

Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by rpielke

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Scott – I am not aware of plans to expand Argo. It certainly makes sense.

The wasted funds that go into making expensive multi-decadal regional climate projections, using models that do not show skill at predicting changes in climate statistics in hindcast runs, would be better spent on more real-world observations.

Roger Sr.

Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by Tonyb

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Scott

I heard Thomas stocker himself admit that we did not have the technology to measure the deep ocean, below 2000 metres.

Yes, we need many more Argos and allow the expanded fleet to operate for a decade before drawing any interim conclusions.

Tonyb

Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by Steven Mosher

Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by Richard


Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by Steven Mosher

Comment on Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data by Mike Flynn

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MiCro,

I agree with you.

Joshua is another Warmist denier, who cannot accept that the Earth moves around the Sun in an irregular elliptical orbit, that its axis of rotation is inclined to the plane of the ecliptic, that winter is colder than summer (in general), and so on.

Warmists seem to think that heat is somehow stored, accumulated, or hidden away, so that it doesn’t radiate away when temperatures drop – at night, under cloud, when a cold front passes through, or even when the polar regions are shaded from direct sun for 6 months or so, let alone during winter.

They are prepared to labour away mightily at someone else’s expense, changing history not at all, producing nothing novel or useful, and for that, they expect respect, admiration, or even worship!

They might as well form into circular groups, and sit around basking in each others’ intellectual radiance, while indulging in mutual ego stroking.

Joshua and his ilk have at least one useful purpose, which is to demonstrate the variety of neuroses and psychoses available to mankind.

All part of the rich tapestry of life!

Live well and prosper,

Mike Flynn.

Comment on Open thread by Rud Istvan

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Danny, one way to get into the IPCC process is the climate chapter of my second book The Arts of Truth. It was vetted by Prof. Lindzen of MIT, and deals with AR4. Also a primer on climate science (SB, feedbacks, GCMs). There are several essays in Blowing Smoke that deal with both AR4 and AR5. Hiding the Hiatus and Cloudy Clouds (both WG1), and No Bodies plus Himalayan Glaciers (both WG2) would be good starting points.
Saves you having to read all of both, several thousand grinding pages, as I did in order to write the books.
SPMs are political gloss. Best avoided.

Comment on Open thread by ianl8888

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> … the distribution of the extra rain is nonobvious …

Yes

This is the Achilles Heel of the scarey-bear “floods and droughts” of the Australian CAGW propaganda stories

They’re so self-contradictory that they aren’t even interesting fairy stories, yet the MSM promulgates them daily. One despairs, of course …

Comment on Open thread by Rud Istvan

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Craig, true. Except the IPCC actually said it in SRES and in AR5 WG1. So did UNFCC. Boy, do they look silly. See essay Caribean Water.

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