Arrhenius and co
I think they make typewritters
Comment on 2 new papers on the ‘pause’ by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2
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Comment on 2 new papers on the ‘pause’ by kim
Sheeeesh, it’s ‘huuuuggge’. Without the error bars it’s ‘uuuggg’.
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Comment on Differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower atmosphere by Eli Rabett
There was the <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/10/ocean-heat-storage-a-particularly-lousy-policy-target/comment-page-3/" rel="nofollow">hilarious Real Climate thread</a> where Roger Pielke Sr.'s responses were demands that others answer his questions while refusing to answer other's questions
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Comment on 2 new papers on the ‘pause’ by Tuppence
It’s a simple question of logic, lolwot, and following the money.
The climate establishment, being politically funded, is committed to a finding of alarmism, since that best serves the cause of politics (more taxes and bureaucracies etc to ‘fight’ global warming).
So the very last thing they would want to admit, is that warming has stopped. And so if even they – alarmists – are forced to concede a Pause, those of us here in the cheap seats can all be pretty sure there are good grounds for it. It’s like a Keynesian finally admitting that inflation is monetary phenomenon. Or Burger King admitting Macdonald’s is better.
Under those conditions, using alarmists’ authority against alarmism makes perfect sense. And anyway, close to 100% of money in climate science is in alarmists hands (as virtually all CS funding is political), so who else is there to reference?
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Comment on Differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower atmosphere by Eli Rabett
The UAH software <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2013/03/an-apology-from-eli.html" rel="nofollow">is available<a / rel="nofollow">. Took a long time and not well publicized, but available.
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Comment on Differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower atmosphere by kim
Who you gonna believe, Pielke Pere or the Real Climate Rare?
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Comment on Differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower atmosphere by Eli Rabett
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/operationalcdrs.html for UAH and RSS. S
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Comment on 2 new papers on the ‘pause’ by opluso
This pause is pregnant with possibilities.
The Roberts, et al., paper notes that we should not be surprised by long pauses in warming,
…given the recognized contribution of internal climate variability to the reduced rate of global warming during the past 15 years…
Their major conclusion, based on probability theory, is that no one should be surprised if model inaccuracies continue for another 5 years. But that conclusion does not preclude the possibility that the models are just wrong and will continue to be wrong forever.
Focusing on internally generated variability, we use pre-industrial control simulations from an observationally constrained ensemble of GCMs and a statistical approach to evaluate the expected frequency and characteristics of variability-driven hiatus periods and their likelihood of future continuation.
Even granting their probability calculations, their result gives me no confidence in the usefulness of model-generated future trends. As with the Marotzke & Forster paper, explaining away a model’s divergence from observation by reference to an “internal variability” that exactly matches model error is tautological.
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Comment on Differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower atmosphere by kim
So UAH now the cleanest, most transparent, method of acquiring temperature data?
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Comment on 2 new papers on the ‘pause’ by A. Voip
Planets that shine like a sun. It can all be so confusing. And we were so close.
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Comment on Differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower atmosphere by Eli Rabett
Believe most of the code is here.
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Comment on 2 new papers on the ‘pause’ by A. Voip
I made an error.
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Comment on 2 new papers on the ‘pause’ by Frank
So let’s make terms to “slowdown of global warming” just like Steinman and MM … http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6225/988.short . They explain also the reason for it: “Competition between a modest positive peak in the AMO and a substantially negative-trending PMO are seen to produce a slowdown…”. The “substantially” negative Pacific internal multidecadal variability in this paper is derived from models.
A brand new paper ( http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2525-1 ) shows the real observed multicecadal variability there:
http://kauls.selfhost.bz:9001/uploads/tpi.png . ( From the supps, for Ines read Index, sorry). The difference after 2000 is the difference of Models to reality. :-)
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Comment on Differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower atmosphere by Bill_W
The slope of the purple line (the central one) looks like it would give ~ 0.15 degrees per decade. Starting two years later would lower that by quite a bit.
Going through 2014 would do the same. The GCMs overestimate the amount of temperature rise. As so many Science, Nature, and GRL papers by the “team” have now shown, they underestimate the effects of the oceans in heat uptake and of ocean cycles.
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Comment on 2 new papers on the ‘pause’ by curryja
Thanks for link to this new paper
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Comment on Week in review by kim
Typo: Value add exceeds devil cost, instead of devel cost.
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Comment on Week in review by daveandrews723
“The science is settled” will go down in history as one of the most ignorant comments among supposedly learned people.
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Comment on 2 new papers on the ‘pause’ by Salvatore Del Prete
Ulric , El Nino events perhaps but with prolonged solar minimum conditions being constant lower overall sea surface temperatures on a global basis will be superimposed on those El Nino events. That was my point..
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Comment on Week in review by Dan W.
In October 2014 NOAA forecast the North East would experience above average winter temperatures. They did not just get this forecast wrong. They got it 100% wrong. The North East and Mid-Atlantic experienced some of the coldest winter temperatures on record. Should not NOAA be held to account for this terrible forecast? What does this failed forecast say about the value of ANY long range weather / climate forecast?
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/winter-outlook-2014-2015
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Comment on Week in review by pokerguy
“EPA Chief Gina McCarthy Can’t Answer Basic Climate Questions at Senate Hearing”
Nor can Barak Obama who instead of taking the time and effort to get educated, has surrounded himself with loony climate zealots. Be funny if it weren’t so frightening.
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