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Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by David Springer

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@Mosher

I know something is broken. I don’t need to isolate the cause in order to reach that conclusion.

Example. My car won’t start. That’s an observation. A fact. It would be nice to know why but the fact remains that it won’t start despite not knowing why it won’t start.

Adjustments to the entire temperature record add a warming trend. Stations singled out in a group that don’t need any adjustments don’t show the same warming trend. Something therefore isn’t working right in the adjustment process. That’s an observation. A fact. It would be nice to know what exactly is broken but I don’t have the time or expertise to figure out what’s wrong. My ignorance of the cause of the failure doesn’t change the fact that the adjustment process doesn’t work. I can make suggestions based on a casual investigation. I think the root cause is exactly what Watts et al are claiming – poorly sited stations are in the majority and they then become the “trusted” stations used to correct the minority of well sited stations.

But again for my purposes I don’t need to know why it doesn’t work. Sometimes you just scrap a car that won’t start and drive something else instead.

Write that down.


Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by RichardLH

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” I think the root cause is exactly what Watts et al are claiming – poorly sited stations are in the majority and they then become the “trusted” stations used to correct the minority of well sited stations.”

I suspect the whole interpolation/extrapolation exercise myself. The temperature field that is being sampled is most definitely not the smooth curve between stations that BEST and the rest model.

It is a quasi-chaotic pattern between sample points and not a simple curve. Weather modified.

Satellites sample it all. They are, therefore, more likely to be accurate as to the connects of the whole field in any one area. YMMV.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by RichardLH

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by David Springer

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RichardLH

No. Smoothness has nothing to do with it. There’s no friction between the ocean and the vacuum of space.

Slowing of spin results from mass movement close to the center of mass towards the perimeter. The surface of the earth at the poles is near the center of mass as it’s on the spin axis. Melting ice that sits above sea level nearer the poles ends up adding more more mass nearer the equator as the now liquid water distributes itself across the globe at sea level.

The equator is farthest from the center of mass. The effect is exactly like a spinning ice skater moving their arms outward to slow their spin.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by David Springer

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RichardLH

No it was not from the days when a station was compared to itself. Read the description in the top link.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by David Springer

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RichardLH

There is no infilling of missing regions in CONUS. The problem is too many stations not too few where the majority of that overabundance are poorly sited.

Your point however certainly applies to the global surface reconstruction which, outside of Western Europe and CONUS, is so lacking in coverage it’s laugh worthy.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by verytallguy

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by RichardLH

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“There is no infilling of missing regions in CONUS.”

As there is demonstrably no thermometers in each farmers field between stations that is obviously not true when it comes to estimating the Temperature Field between stations.


Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by RichardLH

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And thank you for tightening up my wording.

“Global Temperature is a 3D Temperature Field. It is discretely sampled by both point (thermometer) and volume (satellite) instruments with varying methodologies, time windows, area coverage and data sampling lengths.”

Comment on Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus by ehak (@ehak1)

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Turbo:

Follow the link. Christy compared the MSU/AMSU to other tropospheric measurements and reanalysis. And found RSS diverging. Too low. Now they have their own new TMLT product diverging as well.

If you prefer to do a comparison with land only you will have to apply a land mask for gistemp met stations.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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<i>And How did you assess that metadata was “better”</i> By the huge amount and detail added between the time when we started looking at this and now. Someone at NCDC made a good hire.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by AK

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<blockquote>Skeptics lost. even with republican “deniers” running the show we ended up with billions of subsidies for renewable energy that “solves” a problem that you guys argue doesnt exist.</blockquote>Skeptics won: subsidies for solar and wind are tiny compared to what the alarmists want(ed) to do (as Springer mentions above). Their impact on the economy, even if they don't work, will be minimal. BEST won: opening LNG exports will provide <b>huge</b> support for development of gas as a “<i>bridge</i>”. Proponents of solar won: if solar PV continues its exponential decline in cost, this will be enough to push it over the hump. Similar for wind, although I'm skeptical about its scaleability. The only real losers are the socialists who wanted to use “<i>global warming</i>” as a stalking horse for their own agenda. Everybody these days is saying that capitalism can solve the problem. And skepticism certainly played a part in that: the uncertainty about the magnitude of the problem, and whether it even exists, certainly (IMO) influenced people's willingness to impose the known problems/risks of giving up "free-market" capitalism.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by Peter Lang

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PA,

If this is where you are coming from we are in sync.

Well, the list of points you raised in your last comment is broader than what I was asking about. All my questions have been trying to understand what you meant in your replies to my first reply to you. You quoted this bit from my first reply to you:

I don’t know if GHG emissions are doing more harm or more good. We only hear about the projected harm. We hear little about the benefits,

and then gave an answer that wasn’t clear as to whether you agreed with me or not, especially about the benefits..

Your latest comment covers many points that we could discuss. However, I hope you can start each response to me with a clear statement of whether you agree or disagree with what I’ve said and then make whatever points you want to make including an explanation of why you disagree if you do.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by Don Monfort

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Brandon’s thoughts on the Cookie paper are a little scattered, but Greg Maddigan nailed you clowns on that thread. Por ejemplo:

https://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2013/05/17/consensus-behind-the-numbers/#comment-18794

Bottom line is, out of 12,000 papers a very scant tiny little grand total of 65 papers explicitly endorsed the proposition that humans have caused >50% of the recent warming.

You fail the Cookie test, willito. Defending that piece of crap paper exposes a total lack of moral and intellectual integrity.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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Regardless of whether pairwise is all it’s cracked up to be, they are doing it wrong.


Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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So far, I’ve been trying to make Evan justify why VeeV would be committed to explain the similarity between two numbers

Okay, I’ll try typing slowly this time.

The similarity of the two numbers is a scathing challenge to homogenization as currently practiced. It is a stereotypical fingerprint of systematic error.

VeeV is chief boffin of homog. Therefore and explanation is called for. (Yelled for?)

He has, of course, the right to remain silent. But I would rather he examine the problem. But if he doesn’t, that’s okay — we will. It is not as if there was never a possibility that a systematic error was unaccounted for. And here it is. So I say he should account for it. And if we are not right, he should find out what else is the matter. Because something is surely the matter here. He’s the expert.

Our findings do not invalidate homogenization as a basic approach. Accounting for this systematic error would improve it. It is a seductive tool, after all.

Comment on Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus by Nick Stokes

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This graph of Bob Tisdale’s comes from files on their website, in which they simply gave the kriged grids for all years from 1880. There is no claim for fitness for any particular purpose. Their paper dealt with the years from 1997 onward, where SST coverage is anyway good. They say in the paper:
“For short extrapolation ranges (e.g. one cell in latitude or 550 km), the difference between kriging and the hybrid method is small and at midlatitudes the unobserved regions in the SST data tend to be small and isolated; thus the choice of infilling method makes little difference.”

They also point out that the only SST with poor coverage (in these years) is where there is also intermittent ice, which requires special treatment.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by David Springer

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verystallguy

USHCN adjustments warm the recent past.

GHCN adjustments cool the distant past.

Net effect is a greater warming trend over the entire record.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by PA

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There are no CONUS grid boxes without a surface station inside it.

5 degree squares are roughly 345 mile squares or 119025 square miles.

2.5 degree squares are roughly 172 mile squares or 29756 square miles.

Yeah there is probably one or more stations in each box. The problem is what they do with more than one station. If there is a “pristine” station that should be the value for the square. The contaminated data from rural and urban stations should just be ignored.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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Kyle Hilburn?

From RSS? The circles in which we move without even knowing it! JC’s unknown unknowns abound.

As for heat sink vs. UHI:

I do not think it is encroachment of UHI mesosite for the following reasons.

1.) Removal of urban data does not affect the aggregate trend of the remainer. (Tmean matches to 3 decimals.)

2.) Poorly sited rural stations have a higher trend than well sited urban stations.

3.) Stations with poor microsite warm at a faster rate than well sited stations, even if not encroached and having the same rating throughout the study period.

Heat sinks will only serve to lessen day/night temperature difference they won’t change a trend.

That’s what NOAA says. Our observations differ.

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