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Comment on Open thread weekend by mosomoso

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The range of potential futures has already been figured and been acted upon. The results have been trillions in waste, with more to come, even if we stop the silly stuff now. One example: Dismantling wind power (because it sucks) will involve maybe fifteen percent of the manufacture and installation costs, and that’s if you leave lots of concrete and wire lying about.

Let’s hope we don’t go through a chilly spell and find it doubled up by some volcanic action. By far, this is the most likely global climate catastrophe. Though one should not wet the bed about it, a long and dirty eruption like Laki will shut down aviation and cripple much agriculture. And a Laki, a Tambora or a Krakatoa is not a remotely “figured” thing. It will come. Not discussed much, of course. The political and tax potential is low. Maybe worse than low, if you know what I mean. Might make all those solar panels look even sillier and shabbier and more impotent.

Tony, when Laki went off (and kept going off) there were only birds and insects using air space. I wonder what a world without aviation would be like. We’ll find out. Odd that in an age of climate alarms, few care. Lewandowsky can get money for his childish blather, while the main world volcanology bodies beg for funds. Decade Volcanoes projects are still, as I am told, unfunded by the UN. Imagine that. Doesn’t anybody care about climate change?


Comment on Open thread weekend by WebHubTelescope (@WHUT)

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People have the power, to quote Patti Smith.

Comment on Open thread weekend by yguy

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yguy, paleoclimate is the “case history”.

No, that’s the history of the patient without the drug (human added CO2); and if there’s any reason to believe its effect has been significant, it has not been presented to this layman.

It has all happened before and is well understood.

I don’t know who the hell you people think you’re kidding. If any of this were “well understood”, people would be making accurate weather predictions 2 years in advance instead of 2 days.

> If pharmacologists worked like climatologists do [...]

they’d be working on a planetary scale.

More to the point, they wouldn’t have justify their conclusions with any controlled testing.

Comment on Open thread weekend by blouis79

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Consensus building by consensus:
It’s true: 97% of research papers say climate change is happening
http://theconversation.com/its-true-97-of-research-papers-say-climate-change-is-happening-14051

Today, the most comprehensive analysis of peer-reviewed climate research to date was published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. Our analysis found that among papers expressing a position on human-caused global warming, over 97% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global…

The paper:
Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024

I’m finding it really hard to believe there are scientists who could possibly think like that – that proving consensus is part of the scientific method.

Comment on Open thread weekend by R. Gates, The Skeptical Warmist

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Tony said:

“Our best and most sincere efforts show that we have been this way before in the last thousand years and prior to that in roman and Minoan times. All with co2 at around the level of today.”

______
Yes indeed! The Earth has been this warm before, thousands of times. The essence of true climate science is to answer why for EACH time, and remarkably as we do so, we see that just as there are multiple ways you can get from point A to point B, there are multiple ways (combinations of forcing agents) for the climate to reach this temperature (either starting from a higher or lower temperature).

When we start to look at each time, we see patterns of similar and dissimilar forcings. When two things appear to be the same but are actually caused by different forcings…now that makes things interesting and understanding those differences leads to an even larger understanding.

Unless you are suggesting that just because the Earth has had similar temperatures before with greater or lessor CO2, that we ought not to try to understand how this time could have its own unique set of forcings.

Once more, climate is NOT a random walk.

Comment on Open thread weekend by blouis79

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(Sorry – I found Jim D | May 18, 2013 at 12:10 pm
posted on this paper above – didn’t manage to find it by search on titlle)

Comment on Open thread weekend by willard (@nevaudit)

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On the 2013-05-10, at 16:22, presumably CDT, was published at Lucia’s an op-ed with the title Happy Hour: Time to Play!, under two tags: data comparisons and politics:

Install Firefox Plugin I made available here. You will see a warning because Mozilla permits these to be available before the check them. Install.

Optional: Visit SurveyPage1.html. The purpose of this page is to let you detect the plugin is working. [...] The page also shows you information that John Cook’s script would log if you visited his survey without the plugin. It then shows you how that information is spoofed. [...]

Get a bunch of anonymous (IP|Port) pairs from a free proxy service. Try spys.ru,hidemyass.com, http://www.proxz.com.

For more detailed instructions about how one could have had more fun, please refer to the original op-ed.

Comment on DocMartyn’s estimate of climate sensitivity and forecast of future global temperatures by Chief Hydrologist


Comment on Open thread weekend by blouis79

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I’m heartened to know there is a consensus that humans are causing climate change. It means the consensus has the psychological maturity of an egocentric child – who thinks that everything that happens around them is caused by them.

I wish I could find a consensus on:
1. the purported physical mechanism of purported greenhouse warming
2. the need for proper experimental evidence to demonstrate the yet-to-be-agreed purported physical mechanism
3. that the scientific method has nothing to do with consensus of scientists

Comment on Open thread weekend by WebHubTelescope (@WHUT)

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mosomoso ,
The study of volcanoes is important. Not too long ago, the highly-regarded Conservative Republican Booby Jindal wanted to cut off volcano monitoring:


Speaking in the non-State of the Union rebuttal, the Louisiana Republican said that instead of spending $140 million “for something called ‘volcano monitoring,’” Congress “should be monitoring is the eruption of spending in Washington, D.C.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/23/jindal-vs-palin-on-volcan_n_178120.html

That’s what we are faced with.

Comment on Open thread weekend by Jim D

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yguy, you need to go to Skeptic Skool. The other skeptics have an idea about the difference between weather and climate and probably can take you aside and give you a quiet word about your statement. You only damage your cause by equating these after they have spent so much time saying weather is not climate.

Comment on Open thread weekend by GaryM

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The funny thing about deadbeat “dads,” using the term dads loosely? The vast majority of them, and I have chased many for the children and women they have abandoned, think the government should pay to support and raise their children.

Now just what political persuasion do you think sees government as responsible for supporting people? What type of ideology sees the government as the solution to every problem, particular those they created themselves?.

You get one guess. Unless you’re a progressive, then you can have five, and you still won’t get it.

Comment on Open thread weekend by A fan of *MORE* discourse

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LOL … this week’s contrast between the savvy engineers on Slashdot and the slogan-shouting on WUWT has been pretty hilarious:

Slashdot’s savvy engineers(Score 5: Insightful
“In other news, only a minority of physics papers agree that conservation of energy is real. The rest don’t even mention it.”
——————–
WUWT foolishness (The 97% consensus — a lie of epic proportions
“There doesn’t seem to be any limit to the gullibility of those involved and those pushing it. Are [defenders of scientist Cook] purposely mendacious, or just stupid?”

When it comes to willful stupidity and/or slogan-shouting and/or distracting quibbles and/or purposeful mendacity … folks here on Climate Etc sure know where to find abundant examples!

\scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

Comment on Open thread weekend by Jim D

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The issue is that the public can’t quantify the consensus percentage even close to correctly. A journal paper may not help that, and Barack Obama tweeting it certainly will just cause opposition heels to be dug in.

Comment on Open thread weekend by Chief Hydrologist

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‘We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics ‘global climate change’ or ‘global warming’. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.’

‘Recent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For example, roughly half the north Atlantic warming since the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was accompanied by significant climatic changes across most of the globe. Similar events, including local warmings as large as 16°C, occurred repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the last ice age. Human civilizations arose after those extreme, global ice-age climate jumps. Severe droughts and other regional climate events during the current warm period have shown similar tendencies of abrupt onset and great persistence, often with adverse effects on societies.

Abrupt climate changes were especially common when the climate system was being forced to change most rapidly. Thus, greenhouse warming and other human alterations of the earth system may increase the possibility of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events. The abrupt changes of the past are not fully explained yet, and climate models typically underestimate the size, speed, and extent of those changes. Hence, future abrupt changes cannot be predicted with confidence, and climate surprises are to be expected.

The new paradigm of an abruptly changing climatic system has been well established by research over the last decade, but this new thinking is little known and scarcely appreciated in the wider community of natural and social scientists and policy-makers.’ http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10136&page=1

Did you see the affiliations of these people in the Cook et al ‘study’. If we believe them – 97% of climate scientists are well behind the current scientific paradigm. This makes climate science dinosaur science before it has got out of the nursery.


Comment on Open thread weekend by John Carpenter

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I have yet to see HAP praised as being a visionary.

Comment on Open thread weekend by Chief Hydrologist

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Indeed I have complained about gross oversimplifications of a system the size and complexity of the Earth’s climate. Much as I have complained about webby’s egregiously simple minded curve fitting.

Comment on On academics, abstraction, and model addiction by stevepostrel

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OK, I’ll give it a shot. The book was published in 1998, but I think the deep structure is still right although the issues of the day have shifted. It’s full of examples both historical and contemporary and quotes its targets and sources liberally and explicitly. Not a lot of “some say” or “it is often argued” in it.

The main organizing principle of the book is that dynamism versus stasis is a fundamental division in how people think about the social, economic, and political world. This division concerns both normative and descriptive issues, and it cuts orthogonally across the traditional right/left polarity. The motivating observation at the time was a large number of critical issues in which right/left coalitions had formed on each side–free trade, immigration, genetic engineering, the Internet, big-box discount retailing, protection of cultural “diversity,” environmental policies, financial innovation, and in general the process of evolution and creative destruction in the economy.

Dynamism is a worldview that favors decentralized, evolutionary social systems in which structures emerge without anyone necessarily scripting specific outcomes. Stasists prefer some form of global control or restriction on the specific outcomes that arise. The issue is not favoring or opposing change per se. Stasists often favor massive changes while dynamists often feel that existing patterns that have survived competition are the best that can be done. Rather, the dispute is about how we know what is actually a desirable change, how such changes occur, and who should have a say about what aspects of change.

Stasists come in two broad flavors, reactionary and technocratic. (The two often cooperate politically but have different ultimate visions.) Reactionary stasists wish to move society in a radical fashion to a “steady-state” often drawn from some imagined past. Many agrarians and greens fall into this camp, ranging from E.F. Schumacher to Kirkpatrick Sale to Wendell Berry. The U.S. has also had some industrial reactionaries who wanted to reproduce and freeze the social and economic conditions of the 1950s/1960s. Technocratic stasists, by contrast, are looking for “kinetic change made stable,” a plan for moving society forward on a collective, planned basis under the control of bureaucratic and technical experts. “Got a problem, get a program” was an often-useful operational description of technocratic thinking.

Both flavors of stasists have a repugnance for the emergent innovations thrown up by markets and culture, resulting in a constant stream of moral panics generated by our chattering classes, who mostly hew to the stasist persuasion. Dynamists, on the other hand, treat what I will here call the “expected unexpected” with delight or equanimity. It is precisely these kinds of unblessed innovations, ranging from contact lenses to hydraulic fracturing to cohabitation before marriage to punk rock, that provide the mainspring of social progress (Chapter 3), in the dynamist view.

Dynamists prefer a system in which, to the extent possible, rules of interaction are generic and neutral with respect to the specific aims and statuses of the agents involved. Chapter 5 of the book describes the main general properties such rules must possess, including the kind of feedback to individuals they should provide. Dynamists believe that knowledge (Chapter 4) is widely distributed, specialized, and often impacted and hard to communicate, so that requiring people to articulate or give a good reason in advance for what they want to do is often oppressive and contrary to progress. They recognize that nature (Chapter 6) is neither necessary nor sufficient as a guide to what is desirable, and that the dichotomy of humanity and nature is largely illusory. They are sympathetic to the role of play (Chapter 7) in generating progress and enabling us to enjoy our lives. All of these commitments are contested or opposed by stasists.

That’s four paragraphs so I’ll stop now.

Comment on Mainstreaming ECS ~ 2 C by Bart R

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HR | May 20, 2013 at 5:00 pm |

Until possible to prove, they’re unproven, and impossible to prove.

How ought we proceed upon finding an impossibility?

Agree it’s impossible, and that to the dgreee of its effects we have Uncertainty.

Which, when we account for Uncertainty, we must take into account equally the high and low side in all cases.

Will the future produce heavy snow in winter, or mild snowless seasons with no snow pack, and consequent arid springs and summers? Large uncertainty deems we must prepare for both in prudent policies, and in all years, thereby suffering the lost opportunity of overpreparing for each Risk.

Floods and droughts in plenty and absent entirely, we must prepare for, under broad uncertainty ranges. Heatwaves and cold spells, blankets and air conditioners, the whole gamut become equally probable because they are equally uncertain. And while the temptation is there to listen to prognosticators with some harebrained hypothesis that we’ll have such-and-such weather this year, we’d be morons under Uncertainty to listen to them and plan only for what they predict while abandoning preparations for the equal other likelihoods.

Verney’s argument is pure wish-fulfillment, the most abject form of denialism possible.

While what the mathematics tells us is quite pessimistic, in that it demands we be pessimistic about mutually exclusive outcomes because we can’t know which is likelier, it is what it is. The cost of such Uncertainty is the cost of burning enough carbon to make the math turn out that way. It’s the cost of that one extra Forcing in the climate that wasn’t there before 1950. It’s the cost of the ‘cheap energy’ policy that drives the fossil industries by subsidy and favorable legislative climate and failure to price the Commons by the law of supply and demand.

In short, it’s the cost of corporate communism.

Comment on Mainstreaming ECS ~ 2 C by AK

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of course its outdated. every summary of the science is outdated. does this surprise you? doesnt surprise me, but then I never use a secondary source as proof of a matter. do you?

The problem is that a lot of governments do. The whole multi-year cycle of “assesments” turns what should be science into a political circus.

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