Quantcast
Channel: Comments for Climate Etc.
Viewing all 148687 articles
Browse latest View live

Comment on Talking past each other? by ian (not the ash)

$
0
0

I believe Jack Maloney is correct in stating that the “convinced” and “skeptics” may be open to reasoned debate, unfortunately it seems that on Climate Etc. a select number of feuding “deniers” and “believers” will often dominate thread space. While I believe that Judith’s intentions for this site are laudible, I feel that interesting and important subjects are often hijacked by those who seemingly refuse to acknowledge the role their particular ideology plays in determining their positions, often resulting in rancor, clique behaviour and ideological rants that only further to polarise the debate.

Thomas Kelly’s “Disagreement, Dogmatism, and Belief Polarisation”, featured on this site recently, should be an apt reminder of our perpensity toward a dogmatic defense of an initial belief even in the face of contrary evidence. As I must keep reminding myself daily, by far the easiest person to fool is myself (and I do it a hell of a lot).


Comment on Climate Stabilization by ferd berple

$
0
0

“The only reason to build a coal fired plant anywhere in the world outside the US is that you can’t get a nuclear plant in the time frame desired or you have a staunchly anti nuclear population.”

Malaysia is building coal plants because they have coal. Cut a new road through the hills, you find a coal seam. The haze from the coal plants if anything cools the local climate mid day and warms it at night, which is a bonus in the tropics. The CO2 boosts crop production. A plus all around.

The one negative from the power plants is the increase in corrosion due to increased CO2. Many people think that O2 is what causes steel and iron to rust. It isn’t. It is CO2 and H2O that catalyze the oxidation of iron.

Comment on Talking past each other? by ian (not the ash)

$
0
0

Hmmm, Judith, I think my post may have gone straight to spam.

Comment on Talking past each other? by Gene

$
0
0

I would have expected organizations such as the Sierra Club, The WWF, Greenpeace, and the Union of Concerned Scientists to be mentioned among this group, but The IPCC should not if it is to have any credibility.

It’s interesting that the IPCC reports mix scientific literature with the more questionable gray literature from some of these organizations. Some of that same gray literature has been the source of disputes and outright erroneous claims. I have to wonder how much this mixture contributes to the perception of some that criticism of the IPCC as an “attack on science”.

Comment on Climate Stabilization by GaryM

$
0
0

ferd,

“Welfare creates generations of institutionalized poverty” is just a rephrasing of what I said. Preaching to the choir here.

But I must disagree on a limited basis that redistribution NEVER lifts anyone out of poverty. Taxes can properly be used to lift people out of poverty, when they are narrowly targeted towards those who cannot support themselves. Redistribution in that limited sense is not anathema to conservatism. That is why conservative welfare reform did not take the form of stopping all welfare payments.

For instance, a woman with children whose husband is killed for instance, can receive benefits that will keep (or lift) her and her children out of abject poverty. As time passes, she is expected to do what she can to work to support herself and her children, with transfer payments from taxes paid by others easing the way. Or an individual who is injured and incapable of caring for himself (disease, true disability) can be eligible for SSI payments (another redistributive program) during his period of disability.

I don’t know a single conservative who would object to those types of targeted, limited redistribution of tax receipts. Private charity could handle it better, but the progressives have so warped the system that that is not always practical today.

But that is not the type of tax the progressives are urging when it comes to energy (or any of the other taxes they are currently desperate to impose). So I agree with you 98%.

Comment on Talking past each other? by cwon1

$
0
0

As with so many political disputes the sides can’t come together when you reach such a core point of “belief”. AGW was required to tax and regulate co2, the science came after the fact and the consensus of the IPCC was committed almost from inception to proving AGW and linking co2 as an obvious rainmaking (pardon the pun). Building on a natural socialist/eco-regulate enclave found in elite university research it hasn’t been too much trouble to steer and support a like minded core of climate science. Most of the extreme characters such as Al Gore, Joe Romm, Real Climate, Michael Mann, Hansen, Phil Jones and many linked to IPCC wealth redistribution agenda’s all can link in eco-extreme anti-carbon agenda’s (fight big oil etc. etc.). It isn’t just about money or politics but there are huge incentives as this article pointed out today regardless of how flawed the stats might be;

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/261776/all-aboard-climate-gravy-train-iain-murray

It’s an over simplification to think that it’s driven by an agenda science community but it can’t be discounted to near zero either. People who gravitate toward a subset of environmental studies, regardless of grant agendas are more likely to be sympathic toward would-be eco-agenda themes. Why political cultures form many groups and I know there are many individual exceptions in any group or profession but we have to be honest and politically objective which is hard when in fact will be taken as an accusation or “conspiracy theory” by detractors. Try to point out that NPR or PBS are left of center news organizations (which is perhaps more obvious than academics), follow the ranting on discussion boards that will largely again split on party lines. Yes, talking past each other but are there really serious people who could say NPR/PBS are not left of center in bias? How do you continue a conversation with that level of dishonesty? Of course the IPCC/U.N. culture joins an active anti-carbon, pro-regulate, eco-idealistic green subset. Are saying this hasn’t impacted what many in science say or admit?

As for the burning bridge tactics? The standard now (for a considerable time)is to call those who dissent anti-science, ignorant and compare them to holocaust “deniers”. It isn’t hard to look past such a partisan core of hateful advocates. Again, this isn’t an isolated pattern of debate, visit any yahoo or Huffington discussion board on any number of topics and you can find many similar cultural debating styles that rhyme with climate topics. It’s often summed up by conservative groups as “liberal arrogance”.

I don’t know if it is a function of aging or the many internet mediums and the evolving media but the general vitriol and the core narrow minded political culture advocating “climate solutions” only reinforces my desire not to be subjugated by what is clearly a hyped science “consensus” mediated by a politically conflicted U.N. structure in coordination common statist proponents in the U.S. or anywhere else.

There has been nothing conclusive, predictive or over riding regarding climate science which remains an abstract and soft area of science. Nothing has been settled and clearly the practices and standards (Michael Mann and the IPCC summary groups as easy examples) have been stunningly lacking. Serious science has been hyjacked by a mad rush to profit and advance a statist co2 regulation culture on a global basis.

It would be nice if there are those who could talk but in the end the radical carbon agenda must simply be defeated. Perhaps the IPCC can be more open and transparent, this will be fought every step of the way by those who have steered the agw “consensus” to this point. I’m aware of the price (social and perhaps more) paid by our host for stepping out of a level of orthodoxy already, I give her credit. Far more is required by many more. It is impossible to dismiss the political agenda setting and opposition and focus only on “science” at this point. Until an honest political balance of restored in core organizations such as the IPCC and the many sympathetic science organizations little will be settled. The many “silent” scientist must be counted and there views both on science and politics must be disclosed. In the end the general public will have to decide, it isn’t up to a science consensus alone. Sad as it may be but if the promotion of agenda science becomes mainsteamed as it has in the case of the IPCC and AGW co2 regulatory advocates without correction than the only moral act is to dispute and resist.

What would be a good peace offering? Lets strike the term “denier”, “anti-science”, “settled science” and many other terms as a start.

Comment on Talking past each other? by John Carpenter

$
0
0

Pragmatic action could be taken if common ground action items were identified. Let me suggest that common ground items are:

We will need abundant, reliable, inexpensive and efficient energy now and in the future.
We should focus resources on proven technologies, like nuclear, that can deliver our needs.
We should implement energy efficiency measures whenever practical opportunities arise.
We should be energy independent as much as possible (I’m speaking as a US citizen here, but could be applied to any country) as this improves national security.

I’m sure there are many more, but tell me if I am wrong about these. Pragmatic actions are certainly the most desirable way to go.

Comment on Talking past each other? by JT

$
0
0

I would like the “warmers” to debate openly and honestly with the likes of Spenser and Idsos or even Motl to resolve the discrepancy between empirical estimates of climate sensitivity and model estimates of climate sensitivity. Though I claim no expertise; it seems to me that my reading on the subject has the empirical estimates coming in at .5 – 1.5 degrees C / doubling of CO2 and the model estimates at 2 – 6 degrees C / doubling of CO2. Since the first range holds no grounds for alarm while the second does, it seems to me this is a core issue in this debate.


Comment on Talking past each other? by Rattus Norvegicus

$
0
0

Judith,

Perhaps the classification of the IPCC and the NAS as “believers” should mean the the author of this report should do some reflection on the weaknesses of his methodology.

Comment on Climate Stabilization by ferd berple

$
0
0

agreed. Use taxes to teach a man to fish, not to give him fish.

Comment on Foxes, Hedgehogs and Prediction by hunter

$
0
0

Pekka,
Yet mitigation of ‘climate change’ by way of CO2 management has been shown to be a complete failure, terribly expensive, and dubious even if it could be implemented.

Comment on Foxes, Hedgehogs and Prediction by huxley

$
0
0

As is inventing stuff that people didn’t say.

Jeffrey D: “Passing laws against straws” is poetic and broad, but if your side is not about regulating carbon severely, what are you for?

I find debating ACC folks is a lot like playing Whack-A-Mole.

Comment on Reasoning about floods and climate change by Bart R

$
0
0

Harold

I regretted my word choice in that line almost immediately.

Your reasons amplify the worries I have.

It may be better to say that mathematics in particular and science (and engineering, etc.) in general seek to deprecate voting with more immediate methods, though it is inevitable that some ‘voting’ will participate in almost every case at least early on.

Where there is a consensus, it may be still preliminary pending rigorous investigation; where there is too little evidence or too much complexity, expert (or even sometimes naive) opinion is often valuable.

Looking at the particular case of attributing floods to human factors, it is noted in the study that there are other choices than to use opinion to form the basis for decisions; if these other (evidence-based) choices can be shown to be at least as reliable as the opinion, then certainly there is a mandatory argument in science to jettison opinion for evidence.

Comment on Foxes, Hedgehogs and Prediction by hunter

$
0
0

Gary,
A better interpretation of Dagfinn’s point using your metaphor is that the IPCC & gang are playing a game in a stadium that is emptying out due to it sbeing seen as a very poor quality, rigged game.

Comment on Reasoning about floods and climate change by Gene

$
0
0

Agreed, “favorable” would seem to be the most applicable. I have a deep skepticism regarding the “one true path” outlook, but I will concede that “correct” works in some cases. By the same token, “optimal” may be too high a bar to set when the uncertainty level is high.


Comment on Foxes, Hedgehogs and Prediction by hunter

$
0
0

Jeffrey,
You are over your head, and yet you never leave the shallow end.

Comment on Foxes, Hedgehogs and Prediction by James Beattie Morison

$
0
0

I am glad to see that my review has generated so much discussion:
http://www.bukisa.com/articles/448289_a-review-of-future-babble-why-expert-predictions-fail-and-why-we-believe-them-anyway

I would encourage people to read the book and watch Tetlock’s video. They explain their ideas much better than any review can.

I fear that many people will choose to see the hedgehog/fox metaphor as a way to justify their preconceived ideas and attack the people they disagree with. Some of the comments above come across as “I’m a Fox and you’re a Hedgehog, so there fore I’m right.”

I suspect that a real fox would be somewhat uncertain about whether or not he was a fox. I would guess that a hedgehog would be quicker to claim foxhood.

I did write a short story about global warming.
http://www.authspot.com/Short-Stories/The-Parasol.587225

Comment on Foxes, Hedgehogs and Prediction by Peter317

$
0
0

Let’s get a bit of perspective here. A 1cm rise in sea level would create an increase in pressure on the sea bed of literally 1 gram per sq cm. This is rendered totally insignificant (if at all measurable) by large, rapid, localised changes from tides, winds etc, not to mention dynamic pressure changes from ocean currents, as well as tiny changes in water density.
The idea that a small change could result in some ‘tipping point’ being breached in the face of all these comparatively huge oscillations, and without any prior warnings is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Even if it could be said that small changes made such an event slightly more likely, that in itself wouldn’t have made any discernible difference. Perhaps it would have meant that the earthquake might only have happened in 1, 10 or 1000 years, or perhaps it would have delayed it (or advanced it) by mere microseconds.
Or perhaps the effect of the extra weight of water made the plates shift slightly slower, making the resultant quake less severe than it would have been. Nobody knows, nobody can even hazard a guess.

Comment on Foxes, Hedgehogs and Prediction by Peter317

$
0
0

Not to mention that, up to now, most of the sea level rise has been down to thermal expansion. In other words, the sea level rise has not meant a commensurate rise in weight of water.
Not that it makes any difference even if it were.

Comment on Foxes, Hedgehogs and Prediction by Fred Moolten

$
0
0

Maxwell – I responded to a comment by Hunter addressed to me. Peter – about half of the sea level rise has been eustatic, and so about 15 cm over the past hundred years has increased the weight that started to climb since the last glacial maximum. The referenced article provides good reason to think that the stress has made the faults more vulnerable during times of higher sea level. The question is to what extent a fault under stress will be triggered into a slip by a small extra push. We don’t know, but the principle of a small change triggering a large effect is valid, even though it may turn out to be insignificant in this case. My suggestion is to wait for more data before deciding anything.

Viewing all 148687 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images