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Comment on Why is there so much Antarctic sea ice? by Generalissimo Skippy

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And what have from gates and jimmy dee is the usual narrative free of any data.

The ARGO data is not showing any increase – as it follows net CERES – as it must. The so called noise is the signal of climate variability. The change in energy content of the planet must – by the 2nd law of thermodynamics – be equal to the difference between energy in and energy out.

Real data and not just a narrative about radiant imbalances. Always distrust someone who wants to reject hard won data holus bolus.

The stability of CERES is 0.2% in SW and 0.15% in IR per decade.

‘This paper highlights how the emerging record of satellite observations from
the Earth Observation System (EOS) and A-Train constellation are advancing our ability to more completely document and understand the underlying processes associated with variations in the Earth’s top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation budget. Large-scale TOA radiation changes during the past decade are observed to be within 0.5 Wm-2 per decade
based upon comparisons between Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments aboard Terra and Aqua and other instruments. Tropical variations in emitted outgoing longwave (LW) radiation are found to closely track changes in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During positive ENSO phase (El Nino), outgoing LW radiation increases, and decreases during the negative ENSO phase (La Nina). The coldest year during the last decade occurred in 2008, during which strong La Nina conditions persisted throughout most of the year.’ http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~jnorris/reprints/Loeb_et_al_ISSI_Surv_Geophys_2012.pdf

There is an interesting fact about Jason. The sea level rise is given as 3.2mm/year. But the ARGO record is a steric rise of 0.69mm/year over part of the period – with some loss of freshwater content.

http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/vonSchuckmannampLTroan2011-fig5PG_zpsee63b772.jpg.html?sort=3&o=106

Which is correct? I’d put my money on ARGO.


Comment on Week in review by DocMartyn

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(1) Stop Name Calling
(2) Find common positive ideological values with Deniers

There is a perfect English word, that rhymes with ‘anchor’, which describes you to a tee.

Comment on Why is there so much Antarctic sea ice? by captdallas 0.8 or less

Comment on Why is there so much Antarctic sea ice? by Jim D

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GS, your view of ARGO data isn’t tethered to reality. The OHC has increased significantly during the “pause”.

Comment on Mann versus Steyn by timg56

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lolwot,

I am sure you would take being right. A novel feeling for sure with you.

Comment on Week in review by DocMartyn

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“Joshua

Ross McKitrick? Is that the guy that called a scientists that presumably he never met, a “groveling, terrified coward””

Well I have never met you and have a far worse opinion you, you little race-baiter and misogynistic fraud.

Comment on Why is there so much Antarctic sea ice? by David Springer

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Generalissimo Skippy | February 8, 2014 at 4:52 pm |

“It is not really all that deep seated springer – merely a reasonable response to serial stalking.”

Oh you poor thing. My posting from the other side of the planet frightens you.

Comment on Why is there so much Antarctic sea ice? by Jim D

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captd, it is instructive to look at the trend and its acceleration which is 15% per year. If 1 mm of sea level rise comes from the polar glaciers melting now, you can work out that this acceleration becomes 1 meter per year in 50 years. Perhaps that is not frightening enough for you.


Comment on Week in review by David Springer

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Joshua | February 8, 2014 at 2:20 pm |

“It’s also rather interesting that you think that Mann’s reactions have done more harm to his case than Steyn’s continuing constant stream of vitriol – including some directed at judges whose legal rulings he doesn’t agree with.”

I read where Curry said it was harming his reputation. What did Curry say about his case being harmed too?

Comment on Week in review by Visiting Physicist

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Climate models are wrong because they are all based on an assumption of there being isothermal temperatures in a planet’s troposphere in the absence of so-called greenhouse gases.

Don’t you find it interesting that they say that the greenhouse gas water vapour does most of the warming, perhaps 30 degrees of it, with carbon dioxide helping with the other 3 degrees. Water vapour may well vary in different regions. There may be only a third of the mean in a dry desert area for example, so the IPCC authors are, in effect, telling us that water vapour is raising the temperature by only, say, 10 degrees in a dry desert area. Thus the mean temperature in such a location would be below freezing point.

I don’t care how many peer-reviewed published papers in respected journals there may be supporting this absurd conjecture, I’m not falling for the bluff. It’s not supported by physics.

The temperature has already been raised by the gravitationally induced temperature gradient in the troposphere which the Second Law of Thermodynamics tells us must happen as an autonomous result of the spontaneous evolving of thermodynamic equilibrium. It does not happen as a result of any lapsing process. There is no surface at the base of the Uranus troposphere and there is no solar radiation or internally generated thermal energy reaching that layer. Gravity has trapped thermal energy over the life of the planet and the whole temperature plot in the Uranus atmosphere is maintained by gravity, and so too is the case on Earth.

I am the Australia author of published articles and papers on climate matters, and my new book “Why it’s not carbon dioxide after all” will be available on Amazon and Barnes & Noble by early in March.

Comment on Week in review by David Springer

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DocMartyn | February 8, 2014 at 5:27 pm |

“There is a perfect English word, that rhymes with ‘anchor’, which describes you to a tee.”

Banker? Canker? Pranker? Stanker? W…

Oh I think I got it. Can I have an easier riddle next time please?

Comment on Week in review by manacker

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R. Gates

Before you fret too much about the temperature impact of doubling atmospheric CO2, let’s look at this prospect logically.

We are at almost 400 ppmv today (and doing jes’ fine, thank you).

The maximum we could reach from consuming all inferred possible recoverable fossil fuel resources on our planet (some day in the far distant future) is a bit less than 1000 ppmv (or 2.5 times the current level).

Now I personally believe that long before we have burned up all fossil fuels we will have come up with economically viable substitutes, so we will never get to the 1000 ppmv, so your 2xtoday’s level is probably a practical upper limit.

Several recent observation-based studies point to a mean 2xCO2 climate sensitivity at equilibrium of around 1.8C. IPCC still clings to its model-predicted “upper limit” of 4.5C, with a new range of 3 +/- 1.5C.

So, if the more recent studies are correct, we could eventually reach 1.8C warming above today. Tol tells us that the first 2.0 to 2.5C warming above today will most likely have a net beneficial impact for humanity, so this is good news.

If the higher IPCC mean value is correct we will exceed the 2.5C warming at equilibrium when CO2 levels have reached 700 ppmv. That’s when added CO2 emissions will start to have a postulated negative impact on humanity, and that is unlikely to occur in this century.

But so many things will change from now to then that it is silly to get all excited about this virtual hobgoblin, Gates.

Max

Comment on Week in review by Jim D

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The radiating temperature is 255 K. The surface temperature is 288 K which is warmer due to the convective lapse rate (gravity if you like). The only reason these levels are different is the GHGs between them. Without GHGs the surface would also be at 255 K, and gravity be of no help. Maybe you will need an Erratum in your book.

Comment on Week in review by stone100

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Manacker, I got that from what I thought was the most standard mainstream source for info about expected climate change (I’m new to all of this) : http://m.rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20120294.full.pdf

“Burning all fossil fuels would produce a different, practically uninhabitable, planet. Let us first consider a 12 W m−2 greenhouse forcing, which we simulated with 8×CO2. If non-CO2 GHGs such as N2O and CH4 increase with global warming at the same rate as in the palaeoclimate record and atmospheric chemistry simulations [122], these other gases provide approximately 25% of the greenhouse forcing. The remaining 9W m−2 forcing requires approximately 4.8×CO2, corresponding to fossil fuel emissions as much as approximately 10,000 Gt C for a conservative assumption of a CO2 airborne fraction averaging one-third over the 1000 years following a peak emission [21,129].
Our calculated global warming in this case is 16◦C, with warming at the poles approximately 30◦C. Calculated warming over land areas averages approximately 20◦C. Such temperatures would eliminate grain production in almost all agricultural regions in the world [130]. Increased
stratospheric water vapour would diminish the stratospheric ozone layer [131]. More ominously, global warming of that magnitude would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans [132,133].”

“…..Let us now verify that our assumed fossil fuel climate forcing of 9W m−2 is feasible. If we assume that fossil fuel emissions increase by 3% per year, typical of the past decade and of the entire period since 1950, cumulative fossil fuel emissions will reach 10 000 Gt C in 118 years.
However, with such large rapidly growing emissions the assumed 33% CO2 airborne fraction is surely too small. The airborne fraction, observed to have been 55% since 1950 [1], should increase because of well-known nonlinearity in ocean chemistry and saturation of carbon sinks, implying
that the airborne fraction probably will be closer to two-thirds rather than one-third, at least for a century or more. Thus, the fossil fuel source required to yield a 9W m−2 forcing may be closer to
5000 Gt C, rather than 10 000 Gt C. Are there sufficient fossil fuel reserves to yield 5000–10 000 Gt C? Recent updates of potential reserves [114], including unconventional fossil fuels (such as tar sands, tar shale and hydrofracking-derived shale gas) in addition to conventional oil, gas and coal, suggest that 5×CO2 (1400 ppm) is indeed feasible. For instance, using the emission factor for coal from IPCC [48], coal resources given by the Global Energy Assessment [114] amount to 7300– 11 000 Gt C. Similarly, using emission factors from IPCC [48], total recoverable fossil energy reserves and resources estimated by GEA [114] are approximately 15 000 Gt C. This does not include large ‘additional occurrences’ listed in ch. 7 of GEA [114]. Thus, for a multi-centennial CO2 airborne fraction between one-third and two-thirds, as discussed above, there are more than enough available fossil fuels to cause a forcing of 9 W m−2 sustained for centuries”

Comment on Week in review by Jim D

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manacker, with no policy 700 ppm will be reached within 100 years, and the IPCC sensitivity makes that 4 C above preindustrial. It is 5 W/m2 forcing.


Comment on Week in review by JCH

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“Son, delusional and self-congratulatory Is no way to go through life.”

Fits somebody here to a T.

Comment on Week in review by David Springer

Comment on Week in review by manacker

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stone 100

8x today’s CO2 level is flat out ridiculous to start off with (as I pointed out above).

There is not enough recoverable carbon down there to get anywhere near 8x.

But even using IPCC’s arguably exaggerated model-predicted mean 2xCO2 climate sensitivity at equilibrium of 3C, it would only get us to 9C warming – not 20C.

Using more realistic (at least partly) observation-based estimates of several recent studies of 1.8C, it would get us to 5C warming.

My advice: get your numbers straight.

Max

Comment on Week in review by David Springer

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I recall asking you to go ahead and point out where comments were not in chronological order.

Right here:

http://judithcurry.com/2014/01/29/the-big-question/#comment-445082

David Springer | January 30, 2014 at 7:14 pm |

Joshua | January 30, 2014 at 7:00 pm |

“Wrong. I’ll point it out next time I see it happen.”

Yeah, you go ahead and do that.

Brandon sounds more sure than in the comment following mine:

Brandon Shollenberger | January 31, 2014 at 12:13 am |

David Springer, nobody has said the WordPress admin panel (I assume you’re using that to refer to what our host and I called the dashboard) is a single page web application. It’s nice to know you believe you could write a book such a topic, but it’s also completely irrelevant.

Promoting your knowledge while presenting a gross display of ignorance is a good way to look silly.

I’m really happy you finally, after all this time, have caught me making a mistake. Is that all you got? Just something trivial about a bug in WordPress? If that’s all you got it’s kind of pitiful that you’re harping on it over and over.

Comment on Week in review by stone100

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Manacker, they are not my numbers, they are from the link and the excerpt from that link that I pasted. I started this off by saying that this is a very dire warning that deserves a lot of attention and perhaps “outsider review” to either verify or refute it in a rigorous, formal way. You saying it is nonsense doesn’t give me enough reassurance I’m afraid.

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