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Comment on Week in review by David Springer

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Corrected quote from Brandon. It was the second comment following mine.

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I recall asking you to go ahead and point out where comments were not in chronological order.

Right here:

http://judithcurry.com/2014/01/29/the-big-question/#comment-445082

David Springer | January 30, 2014 at 7:14 pm |

Joshua | January 30, 2014 at 7:00 pm |

“Wrong. I’ll point it out next time I see it happen.”

Yeah, you go ahead and do that.

Brandon sounds more sure than in the comment following mine:

Brandon Shollenberger | January 31, 2014 at 12:32 am |

What Joshua is referring to can only happen with orphaned comments. That is, comments which were in response to a comment that is now deleted. It will never happen within nested comments. That can only happen with an administrator.


Comment on Week in review by manacker

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Edim

I’d have to agree with you (and disagree with Jim Cripwell) that it should be possible to test the AGW hypothesis empirically (as the cosmic ray / cloud hypothesis is being tested under controlled conditions simulating our atmosphere at CERN).

I do not know how this would have to be done in order to be truly representative of our climate system, but I cannot imaging that if only a fraction of the many billions of dollars going into “climate change research” and related programs were to be diverted to such a test, this would be impossible.

I believe that the biggest problem is not technical feasibility of performing such a test, but fear that the results would not support the model-generated AGW story, IOW an inherent fear the modelers have of empirical data.

Just imagine what would result if such an empirical test would show that, yes, CO2 does have a greenhouse effect in our climate, but the effect and its impact are only around one-fourth of that predicted by the models (and, as a result, AGW is no future problem for humanity even under the worst future CO2 scenarios).

A multi-billion dollar big business would collapse overnight. Poof!

And the modelers could all go back to weather forecasting or some other gainful occupation.

Max

Comment on Week in review by Alexander Biggs

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Thank you JimD for your reply. However the aerosol theory requires some independent verification. You can’t just trot it out when convenient Only mad Hitler ruffled the world in 1940, there were no major volcanic events. The sky over Britain was as clear as the rest of Europe, as people watched Spitfires dog fighting high in the sky.. But no evidence of unusual aerosols.

Comment on Week in review by Jim D

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Before 1940, it was quite possibly solar. Sunspots increased by a factor of three between 1910 and 1940 indicating growing activity.

Comment on Week in review by k scott denison

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So Jim D, why aren’t insurance companies offering CAGW insurance then?

What would you say is the right rate per $1,000 in North America? Say in Wisconsin, where I live? What should I be paying for CAGW insurance and what would it cover?

Comment on Week in review by manacker

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Jim D

You make yet another proclamation:

with no policy 700 ppm will be reached within 100 years, and the IPCC sensitivity makes that 4 C above preindustrial.

As the song goes, “it ain’t necessarily so…”

While 700 ppm may be an upper limit to a “business as usual” scenario by 2114, it is very likely on the high side.

And face it, Jim, “above preindustrial” is a silly convention.

We are at almost 400 ppmv CO2 today and doing just fine. So let’s look at “above today” and not “above preindustrial”.

We sure as hell don’t want to go back to the Little Ice Age.

Using IPCC’s arguably exaggerated model-derived mean 2xCO2 CS at equilibrium of 3C, 700 ppmv would theoretically get us to 2.5C warming above today.

Tol tells us that the first 2 to 2.5C warming above today would likely be net beneficial for humanity.

So your upper limit case for year 2114 still has us in the beneficial range using IPCC’s arguably exaggerated 2xCO2 estimate and assuming equilibrium is reached.

Your hobgoblin is a paper tiger, Jim.

Max

Comment on Week in review by manacker

Comment on Week in review by Peter Lang

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Mosomoso,

Thanks for the comment. I wonder why everyone avoids answering this question. That alone tells a story. That is, there is no justification for high cost mitigation policies. The policy analysis work to support a case has never been done. If it had, the proponents and advocates would be quick to point to the relevant research that supports their case.

It’s interesting to note that the question is also dodged on The Conversation.


Comment on Week in review by David Springer

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From teh Diviner link that Mosher left.

Subsurface Temperatures

Heat flow measurements made during the Apollo 15 and 17 missions (Langseth et al. 1973) revealed that the top 1-2 cm of lunar regolith has extremely low thermal conductivity. The mean temperature measured 35cm below the surface of the Apollo sites was 40-45K warmer than the surface. At a depth of 80cm the day/night temperature variation experienced at the surface was imperceptible. This implies that habitations in the lunar subsurface exist that are not subject to the harsh temperature extremes prevalent on the surface.

I happen to know that the unchanging temperature 80 or more centimeters beneath the lunar surface is -23C or 250K.

Contrary to what the article implied however Apollo 15 and 17 were not “near the equator”.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/Apollo_landing_sites.jpg

In fact Apollo 15 appears to be at around 60N is 23N latitude.

What does this tell us?

Comment on UK-US Workshop on Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions by Wagathon

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Adaptation Strategy No. 1: Have the courage to do nothing!

Comment on UK-US Workshop on Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions by Editor of the Fabius Maximus website

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I don’t understand Biot’s view (i.e., DFID’s) that one can plan out to the 2050′s without distinguishing whether climate changes are natural or anthropogenic.

Ex post it doesn’t matter, except in terms of blame for wasted investments OR inadequate investments.

Ex ante it makes a big difference. One should absolutely prepare for long-term natural trends (e.g., century-plus of rising sea levels); not to do so is irresponsible (calling NYC and New Orleans…).

The decisions about the wide range of anthropogenic scenarios thru the 2050′s is more complex. This line on slide #25 seems daft: “Don’t worry about uncertainties.”

Comment on UK-US Workshop on Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions by Editor of the Fabius Maximus website

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Edit to my comment, which was not said well: This line on slide #25 seems problematic given the wide range of possible outcomes: “Don’t worry about uncertainties.”

Comment on Week in review by David Springer

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No Bob. Most of the solar energy at TOA what doesn’t reach the surface is reflected without heating jack diddly squat. About 35% of TSI in fact is reflected.

I’m sorry to have to keep harping on the Trenberth cartoon but you boys need to learn the team’s story before trying to defend it, eh?

http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/ocng_textbook/chapter05/Images/Fig5-6.htm

Note that of 341W/m2 incoming at TOA that 107W/m2 is reflected vs. 67W/m2 absorbed atmosphere.

Please please please get a clue.

Comment on UK-US Workshop on Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions by Richard Drake

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Last week, I was privileged to host …

And they were I’m sure privileged to be hosted! Somebody of integrity and of patience has to do it. Thank you for your restrained yet devastating comments on the UNFCCC ‘framing’. Best wishes with receiving a hearing for them.

Comment on Livestock’s long shadow by Arno Arrak

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Now why would greens go to the trouble of presenting a “…unique, biologically consistent, spatially disaggregated global livestock dataset containing information on biomass use, production, feed efficiency, excretion, and greenhouse gas emissions for 28 regions … etc.” ? Because they don’t like the greenhouse gases in their gaseous effusions. If it wasn’t for that you would never see an article like this. Their hatred of greenhouse gases is based on the misconception that carbon dioxide has been warming up the world. Nothing is further from the truth. If you take a look at alleged greenhouse warming in the twentieth century you will find that there was none. Hansen and others allott a total of 0.8 degrees warming to the entire century. This warming was not steady but happened in two warming incidents. The first one started in 1910, raised global temperature by half a degree, and stopped in 1940. The second one started in 1999, raised global temperature by a third of a degree in only three years, and then stopped. Together they account for all of the 0.8 degrees of the warming during the entire twentieth century. If you now want to call either one of these warmings greenhouse warming you must demonstrate that there was an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide at the same time when the warming started. Radiation laws of physics require this because the absorbency of the gas is a property of its molecules and cannot be changed. We know extremely well what carbon dioxide was doing from the Keeling curve and its extension by Law Dome ice cores. There is not a wrinkle in the atmospheric carbon dioxide curve either in 1910 or in 1999. This proves that carbon dioxide caused no warming in the twentieth century. And as is well known, there is no warming in the twenty-first century either. From which the conclusion is inevitable: there is no such thing as greenhouse warming, allegedly produced by atmospheric carbon dioxide.
The greenhouse theory that IPCC has been pushing for the last twenty five years is simply dead. It is almost comical that during two thirds of their existence there was no observed global warming and yet they kept believing in the redemption of their greenhouse theory. As a scientist I can only explain this in a limited way. It could be extreme stupidity but I think not. It could be lieing and it could be self-deception. I think a combination of the last two most likely explains it, along with the desire for funding and political rewards. As to the demise of the greenhouse theory, it deserves it because it is wrong. Just pseudo-science. It applies to carbon dioxide alone and ignores the fact that in the real atmosphere we have a mixture of greenhouse gases simultaneously absorbing in the IR. Only Miskolczi theory of greenhouse gases is capable of handling this general case. According to him, if more than one greenhouse gas simultaneously absorb there exists an optimum absorption window which they jointly maintain. For earth atmosphere the gases that count are carbon dioxide and water vapor. The optical thickness of their joint absorption window in the IR is 1.87. It corresponds to a transmittance of 15 percent or absorbance of 85 percent. If you now add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere it will start to absorb as the Arrhenius theory predicts. But this will increase the optical thickness and as soon as this happens water vapor will start to decrease, rain out, and the optimum optical thickness is restored. In 2010 he tested this concept using NOAA weather balloon database that goes back to 1948 by measuring IR absorption by the atmosphere as a function of time. And discovered that the absorption was constant for 61 years while carbon dioxide at the same time increased by 21.6 percent. Contrary to Arrhenius theory, the addition of this substantial amount of carbon dioxide to air had no influence on the absorption of IR by the atmosphere. This explains the senenteen year hiatus-pause-cessation-of-warming of today. But if you think about it, isn’t it strange that it started suddenly only 17 years ago? The answer is that it did not start 17 years ago. Older warming designated as greenhouse is nothing more than natural warming, misidentified by over-eager pseudo-scientists as greenhouse warming. I will take up fake warming that I discovered later.
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Comment on UK-US Workshop on Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions by David Springer

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"The key question for the UNFCCC: ‘Is the 2C warming as a long-term goal adequate?’" Adequate for <b><i>what</i></b>? Adequate for preventing the looming end of the Holocene Interglaical? Probably not. Adequate for Greenland to have grazing land for cattle and apple orchards again? Maybe. Adequate to scare the bejezus out of the unwashed masses? Evidently so.

Comment on UK-US Workshop on Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions by Jim D

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For that you would have to read the next sentence.

Comment on Week in review by Agnostic

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Stone100

- I assume you meant 1.0 or 3.0. The IPCC central estimate was for 3.0 for a range of between 2.0 and 6.0 which has revised in the latest report to 1.5 and 4.5 but with no central estimate because the pause in warming has caused it to become more uncertain.

- manacker is quite right in what he says, although the manner in which he says it is unnecessarily rude. He is actually an excellent commentator here giving a generally accurate, well argued and well researched assessments that form a skeptical ointment of view. He is worth reading and his arguments are worth examining. However the state of things has gotten to the point where the arguments have been so thoroughly thrashed out there is a good deal of impatience when they have to be made again.

Turn the same skepticism you showed regarding Lindzen on to Hanson. Hanson is an activist – and subject to the biases and exaggeration for effect that goes with that calling. Lindzen, is merely an outspoken critic – usually a pretty normal thing in science.

@manacker; cut the guy some slack. Nothing he has posted here is unreasonable, it’s just wrong, but that’s a pretty common state of affairs if you ask me. Being dismissive and condescending does nothing to convince anyone that your arguments have merit.

Comment on UK-US Workshop on Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions by RiHo08

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Judith Curry

“If climate change is a ‘risk multiplier’ which interacts with pre-existing social, economic and political risks, making peace and stability harder to achieve, ten addressing the pre-existing root causes of vulnerability will help build resilience to climate change and contribute to stability.”

One of the “root causes” is lack of reliable and inexpensive energy. Providing reliable energy source seems a foundational task that precedes all others.

“protection against extreme events”

Are we having extreme events? or, are normal events being labeled “extreme” and “unprecedented”? Frankly, having a conversation about adapting to extreme events begs the question: are these really extreme events? or, just climate scientists alarmism speak?

“Moderating influences include population density and growth, technological development, standard of living, local environmental conditions, pre-existing health status, quality and access to health care, public health infrastructure.”

After reading this sentence my mind recalled late 19th century America and the answers that were developed addressing these very questions. Hopefully there is nothing in the NIH armamentarium like Eugenics that had a Darwinian appeal.

What was stated as “climate change and health field still in early stage” seems dismissive of the tried and true:

“Adaptation measures include vaccination programs, disease surveillance, protective technologies, weather forecasting and warnings, emergency management and disaster preparedness, public health education and prevention, legislation and administration.”

So, start with providing cheap energy, adding what has worked for more than a millennium to lift up the human condition, and be mindful of the strident voices who have “all the answers.”

Comment on UK-US Workshop on Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions by Bad Andrew

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“A key objective is that the outcome of this workshop extends beyond an elite ‘gabfest’ so that the Workshop proceedings and conclusions are made available to a broader segment of interested scientists and the public.”

It’s one thing to make Workshop proceedings and conclusions available.
It’s another to make them worth something.

Andrew

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