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Comment on Energy policy discussion thread by Arcs_n_Sparks

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A few observations on U.S. energy policy:
1. Food-to-fuel is a bad idea. Marginal (if not negative) net energy production, marginal environmental benefit, soaring corn prices.
2. Smart grids are demand-side management tools. Basically, we don’t want to build new power plants, just dynamically change the price of electricity and live with it. Also, from a cyber security perspective, a very bad idea. The Chinese are chomping at the bit.
3. Burning natural gas for electricity is not the best use for this resource. As a petrochemical feedstock, it is much more valuable.
4. The Interior Department has fast-tracked all solar/wind developments on public lands (which unless you drive an electric vehicle, will not fill your tank). Conversely, Interior has made oil/gas exploration difficult.
5. You have the NRC Chairman, mentored under two Congressman hostile to nuclear power, casting the only negative vote for approving the first new reactor build in the U.S. Interior Department also helped by putting 1 million acres of land in Arizona off-limits to uranium mining and exploration for 20 years.
6. We slap our Canadian friends and neighbor in the face by denying the XL pipeline approval. After three years of review, the President didn’t want to be “rushed.” We put a man on the moon in less than eight.

Welcome to the U.S. Energy Policy, which is mostly managed by the DoD and EPA.


Comment on Energy policy discussion thread by Bob Koss

Comment on What if they are wrong? by Doug Cotton

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Before we consider what “backradiation” contributes, let’s say that at 11am on the Equator on one side of the Earth the Sun is shining and delivering 900 W/m^2 to the surface, of which 300W/m^2 is leaking out again into the atmosphere, let’s say 120W/m^2 by evaporation and diffusion followed by convection, and the remaining 180W/m^2 of it by radiation. So we have a net overall inward flux of 900 – 300 = 600W/m^2, this being 900 – 180 = 720W/m^2 net radiation inwards less 120W/m^2 outwards by other processes, ie 720 – 120 = 600W/m^2.

Let us suppose this overall net 600W/m^2 has warmed the surface by 6 deg.C since dawn.

Now the models make out that, let’s say an extra 150 W/m^2 of backradiation from the cooler atmosphere also does some extra warming. So perhaps the increase in temperature has been an extra 1.5 deg.C making a total of 7.5 deg.C since dawn. After all, there is certainly net radiation into the surface.

Does anyone really believe this extra 1.5 deg.C of warming from the cold atmosphere would not have been in violation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics?

This surely must be the weakest argument and the most blatant travesty of physics in the whole (radiative) greenhouse conjecture..

See the ‘Radiation’ page on my site http://climate-change-theory.com for more explanation of how and why the absorptivity goes to zero when the temperature of the source gets down to that of the target.

Comment on Energy policy discussion thread by robin

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I’ve always thought bio fuels were a partly a mechanism to counter the hostage-to-oil scenario. Once the infrastructure is in place, the higher oil goes, the more attractive it is to burn food instead of export it (to oil exporting countries no less). I don’t really have evidence for this thinking, but an I right to assume that is in the subtext? Sorry if this is geo-politics instead of energy policy, though I think those two subjects are pretty much bound together in the current world anyway.

I drove through Williston ND recently, *amazing* boom going on there. It’s like a mini Fort McMurray. I live near one of the larger wind farms in Canada, nowhere near the same fever, but of course the scale is way different.

Energy has a massive massive impact on pretty much everything. I often wonder how big a coincidence it is the slavery was mostly abolished (world wide) not long after the first steam engine. At very least I give energy a bit more benefit of the doubt before condemning it – both in burning of fossil fuels and ‘wasting’ money finding new sources of it.

Comment on Week in review 2/24/12 by Girma

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Professor Richard Lindzen
On the debate on Climate Change

Stated briefly, I will simply try to clarify what the debate over climate change is really about. It most certainly is not about whether climate is changing: it always is. It is not about whether CO2 is increasing: it clearly is. It is not about whether the increase in CO2, by itself, will lead to some warming: it should. The debate is simply over the matter of how much warming the increase in CO2 can lead to, and the connection of such warming to the innumerable claimed catastrophes. The evidence is that the increase in CO2 will lead to very little warming, and that the connection of this minimal warming (or even significant warming) to the purported catastrophes is also minimal. The arguments on which the catastrophic claims are made are extremely weak – and commonly acknowledged as such. They are sometimes overtly dishonest.

http://tgr.ph/w7x3T8

Comment on Week in review 2/24/12 by Chief Hydrologist

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So I don’t know what the problem is – Usoskin et al use a couple of temp reconstructions to correlate with berlyium 10?

The warming from 1979 was from clouds not the sun notably.

Idiot

Comment on Energy policy discussion thread by Don

Comment on Week in review 2/24/12 by Don Monfort

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I wonder how the people rode those little tiny horses. Did the people get little and tiny too? And the mosquitoes must have got really small. I don’t get some of this stuff. Freddie, help!


Comment on Energy policy discussion thread by Jim Cripwell

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If I have read things right, Growth Energy states “But cellulosic ethanol currently faces a bumpy road to commercialization , with R&D projects still mostly in laboratories.”

I dont think this is correct. See

http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2012/01/24/poet-dsm-form-landmark-cellulosic-ethanol-joint-venture/

An alliance between Poet and DSM is now building a commercial plant to produce, initially, 20 million gallons of cellulose ethanol per year, increasing to 25 million in a few years. Production is scheduled to start in 2013. This is completely private project, with no government involvement. They claim the production will be profitable in the first year. With the price of gasoline increasing in the past weeks, this could well be correct.

If the first plant is successful, there are plans to build something like 25 similar plants to compliment Poet’s existing corn ethanol production. We will, of course, need to wait until 2013, but i might be prepared to put some quatloos on the table that say the project will be a commercial success.

Comment on Energy policy discussion thread by John M

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Huh? Hmmm, OTH,maybe when faced with a clearly hostile response to a quite benign quiz question, maybe I <i>ought</i> to brush up on those self-defense skills.

Comment on Energy policy discussion thread by WebHubTelescope

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“The current president (who I voted for last time) has decided to side with those that believe the use of fossil fuels is a net long term harm and has discouraged the development of domestic resources. This has been largely without overtly publicizing that the reasons for the refusal. It is very bad US policy economically.”

Are you really that naive? The president is not going to straightforwardly say that the conventional crude oil reservoirs are a thing of the past. That is not in his best interests politically because it will have direct impact on everyone that hasn’t had their bubble burst yet. And it will only serve to fortify and cement the positions those that want to maintain BAU. The “energy independence” argument is a wishy-washy compromise to keep the citizenry in a state of hazy optimism.

“Newt says much about energy policy that is nonsense, but he is correct that we should develop a much greater domestic production capability. “

Yes, and Santorum thinks we can continue to pillage the environment, because that’s what his dominionist theology demands (I don’t pretend to understand that armegeddon junk, but apparently lots of people believe in it).

Isn’t this a great political topic? Either politicians want to evade serious discussion, or they are stark, raving mad.

Comment on Week in review 2/24/12 by Fred Moolten

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The performance of models is a separate subject from the honesty of the WSJ authors.

Comment on New version of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature data set by Frank Lansner

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Hi Juduth Curry, I was informed that the RUTI project was discussed to some degree here in this blog.

Some argue that RUTI cant be replicated.
This is nonsence.
The stations used bu RUTI are there for all to see, just like Hadcrut etc.

Then some argues that “because they dont know what RUTI criterias are for chosing stations is not defined by a general sharp definition, we cant use RUTI.”

What are Hadcruts criterias for chosing 87 temperature stations in USA with an average of 1,3 mio peoble? What are Hadcruts clear definition for choosing only 10 stations officially rural in the USA when many hundreds are available?

First of all:
If all unadjusted temperature data was fully available, it would be much more relevant to “demand” one general rule of how to choose data valid worldwide. Such a demand shows that even sceptics sadly has no idea what we are up against (!)

Reality is that we have SCARCE, CHERRY PICKED, CUT DOWN pile of sometimes adjusted “unadjusted” data, so the magic we simply have to do, is to explore each area of the globe manually (!!) find out what is going. There is NO simple definition when facing a corrupted dataset.

How one has to play “Sherloc Holmes” to recover dayta is very clearly shown here where I restore the real NW Europe temperature trend from data supposed to hide it:
http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/ruti/europe/nw-europe-and-de-bilt.php

In many areas, the situation is better than in Europe, for example Zambia data is more complete than German data sets…

Some here argue that “RUTI cant be replicated.”
This is nonsence.
The stations used bu RUTI are there for all to see, just like Hadcrut etc.

Then some argues that “because they dont know what RUTI criterias are for chosing stations is not defined by a general sharp definition, we cant use RUTI.”

What are Hadcruts criterias for chosing 87 temperature stations in USA with an average of 1,3 mio peoble? What are Hadcruts clear definition for choosing only 10 stations officially rural in the USA when many hundreds are available?

The great advantage of RUTI is that the proceedings area for area are there for all to see and judge for them selves. This makes RUTI the obvious choice compared with any other ground based temperature source.

And by the way its rather wrong there is no explanation of how RUTI evaluate Rural stations, its because they haven’t checked it out.

UHI.

In RUTI the UHI approach is explained in the general introduction:
http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/ruti.php

Here a part of the introduction:

“RUTI is not all rural nor all unadjusted. However, RUTI is a temperature index aiming to use still more rural data (less use of city and airport data), still more unadjusted data when available and reasonable.”

“Thus, the main criteria to evaluate if a temperature station is rural or not is to check out the position using google maps. It is the relative growth of a city that determines the UHI pollution for a temperature stations, not the absolute size of a city. Therefore for RUTI use, stations that are located outside urban area or at least do not show a temperature trend significantly different than the near by rural stations are preferred.
In many areas, rural data are scarce and to some degree we have to use some (sub-) Urban data.”

And Judith, RUTI shows area for area what stations are used and why. This is a golden deluxe transparency compared to the conventional data sources.

EX: Here I show Turkish data, I show that the whole area of Turkey has systematically been corrupted since only a few large cities have data public available and thus I dismiss the whole country and I have explained why:
http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/ruti/asia/turkey.php

EX: For Italy, not that many data series are available, but I show which stations are used, and that these data series mutually support each other:
http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/ruti/europe/central-mediterranean.php

K.R. Frank Lansner
PS: If you would like, I can make a presentation of RUTI on your site.

Comment on Energy policy discussion thread by Bob Ludwick

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Not a concern about privacy as concerned that the smart meters allow the nomenklatura to impose power restrictions on ME, PERSONALLY, without inconveniencing themselves a bit. With the previous system of having to pull entire substations off line to control the load, they would lose their power along with me. With the smart meters the ‘connected’ will NEVER have a power conservation outage and NEVER have to suffer the consequences of their ‘green’ energy policies. You and I will.

Comment on Energy policy discussion thread by Rob Starkey

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Web I disagree with your conclusions and I wish US politicians would better communicate a clear message on the issue of climate change.

The UN and you are promoting scientifically weak conclusions to push an agenda that is not in the US’s best interests to follow.

The US “needs” to be self sufficient in its supply of energy and we can be by 2020 if we work on the issue.

The US uses 20 B barrels of oil per day

The US produces 7 million barrels of oil per day

The US used to produce 10 million per day

The US should raise production back to 10 million per day

The US should turn natural gas to methanol to make up about an additional 5 million per day and can make up the rest from Canada and Mexico and with additional efficiency (natural technology improvements)

We should not follow a “green agenda” that leads the US to economic ruin.

We can take care of the environment and our national interests.


Comment on New version of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature data set by Frank Lansner

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Sorry, some parts came in twice.
K.R. Frank

Comment on Energy policy discussion thread by Tom Kennedy

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Pekka,

I took a look at your web site and you stated:

The economics of wind power has improved slowly, and has led to competiveness under most favorable conditions.

It’s been estimated that there are about 14,000 abandoned wind power machines in the US. It seems all the government subsidies go to building new wind farms and none to cleaning up rusting eyesores that are beginning to make parts of the world look like : a bad war of the worlds” movie set. (H/T Delingpole).

I can send you picture of one farm on the Big Island of Hawaii that has desecrated one of the most beautiful spots on earth. Do the economics you cite factor in the cost of removing this blight. All studies I’ve seen show wind to be not even close in competiveness unless government subsidies are added – that’s called cheating!
If wind power is competitive then why are windmill companies failing once they loose government subsidies.
Solar i has even worse economics.

Comment on Energy policy discussion thread by billc

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david, as a pennsylvanian it appears the greater problem is the old wells and the simple proliferation of so many new wells in close proximity. the actual fracking takes place in strata many thousands of feet below the aquifers, with many diverse strata in between, it’s hard to think crack propagation will be a big problem. serious problems with fracking as opposed to conventional drilling of which I am aware are a Wyoming (?) case with a tight sand formation much closer to the surface, and an Arkansas (?) case with induced seismicity.

Comment on Week in review 2/24/12 by pokerguy

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Fred,

OK fair enough. Appreciate your candor. Which again is why I took issue with what struck me as your bland assertion of equivalency. Note that I’m taking your word for the moment that the Wall Streeters were being intentionally deceptive. I barely passed statistics for dummies (social science major) about 150 years ago, so I’m not qualified to judge. Still Fred, I don’t see how you can disagree that on just about every front, the models have fared quite poorly relative to real world happenings. That’s why you guys are always going on and on about dying polar bears, and disappearing glaciers, and weather. Any kind of weather.

And speaking of equivalency, I don’t see how you can blame its detractors from assigning just as much importance to the HS as its proponents. After all, this was heralded by your side as all the evidence we needed that we were all going to burn. From a PR standpoint at the very least, it was pretty devastating. In the longer run of course, it ended up doing great damage to you warmists, though I’m sure you’d argue unfairly.

Comment on Energy policy discussion thread by Pooh, Dixie

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It has been called to my attention that the domain of the url above has “expired”. I know the site was active 12/24/2011.

However, our Australian cousins have thoughtfully provided a copy. (Quote is in paragraph just before “Conclusions”)
http://dea.org.au/news/article/the_popul….anne_h._ehrlich

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