bill c and Anteros
The first decade of the 21st century was supposed to warm by 0.2 degC according to IPCC.
It didn’t warm at all (maybe even cooled slightly).
By the same IPCC model forecasts that missed the first decade, the entire 21st century is supposed to warm on average by 1.8 to 4 degC, with a peak value of 6 degC.
Based on these actual observations, I have a real hard time seeing even 2 degC within a “likely range”.
But 4 deg C (or even 6 degC) are definitely well outside that range.
Max