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Comment on Trends, change points & hypotheses by Girma

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Max

Could you please explain the following calculation of your?

Let’s say IPCC projected warming of 0.2C per decade for the first decades of the new century. This is a projection of 0.4°C warming over the first two decades.

The 11-year period 2001-2011 showed cooling of, let’s say 0.1C.

The 9-year period 2012-2020 must now show warming of:

(20*.02 + 0.1)/9 = 0.5/9 = 0.0556°C per year or 0.556°C per decade, in order for the 20-year projection to have been correct.

Right?


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