Chris Colose
“Every little bit helps”.
Or does it?
Thanks for elaborating your personal belief on the impact of the announced EPA regulation.
You say that whatever EPA does, it will make mo difference to our planet’s climate. I fully agree.
Even if the USA completely shut down its carbon based economy, this would have an imperceptible impact on global temperature by 2100.
Let me explain.
IPCC estimate that from 1990 to 2100 we will have globally emitted between 3,600 and 8,000 Gt CO2.
All the remaining optimistically estimated fossil fuels on our planet (according to WEC) contain just enough carbon to generate 10,000 GtCO2, so the upper IPCC estimate appears grossly exaggerated (IPCC scenario and storyline A1F1). So let’s stick with a high BaU case (A1B) with 5,500 GtCO2 added between 1990 and 2100.
The CDIAC tells us that we have added around 500 GtCO2 from 1990 to 2010, so that leaves 5,000 GtCO2 from 2010 to 2100.
Emissions from the USA are estimated to represent around 10% of the added CO2 between now and 2100, or 500 GtCO2.
If EPA completely shuts down the US carbon-based economy today, this is how much CO2 would be averted.
On this basis, and using the actually observed CO2 temperature response from 1850 to 2010, the IPCC estimate of natural forcing plus the logarithmic relationship, we arrive at a net reduction of the warming by 2100 of 0.1°C by shutting down the USA completely today.
If we use the arguably exaggerated model-based IPCC 2xCO2 climate sensitivity of 3.2°C, we arrive at a net reduction of warming of 0.2°C.
So you’re right. No matter what the EPA does to US CO2 emissions, it will have no perceptible effect on our climate.
The rest of your premise is redundant.
Max