“Life can multiply until all the phosphorus is gone, and then there is an inexorable halt which nothing can prevent,”
Isaac Asimov (Biochemist).
Morocco, China, South Africa and Jordan control 80 percent of the world’s reserves of usable phosphate.
Global Environmental Change
Volume 19, Issue 2, May 2009, Pages 292-305
The story of phosphorus: Global food security and food for thought
Dana Cordella, Jan-Olof Drangerta, Stuart Whiteb
Abstract
Food production requires application of fertilizers containing phosphorus, nitrogen and potassium on agricultural fields in order to sustain crop yields. However modern agriculture is dependent on phosphorus derived from phosphate rock, which is a non-renewable resource and current global reserves may be depleted in 50–100 years. While phosphorus demand is projected to increase, the expected global peak in phosphorus production is predicted to occur around 2030. The exact timing of peak phosphorus production might be disputed, however it is widely acknowledged within the fertilizer industry that the quality of remaining phosphate rock is decreasing and production costs are increasing. Yet future access to phosphorus receives little or no international attention. This paper puts forward the case for including long-term phosphorus scarcity on the priority agenda for global food security. Opportunities for recovering phosphorus and reducing demand are also addressed together with institutional challenges.