Comment on Foxes, Hedgehogs and Prediction by Peter317

Let’s get a bit of perspective here. A 1cm rise in sea level would create an increase in pressure on the sea bed of literally 1 gram per sq cm. This is rendered totally insignificant (if at all measurable) by large, rapid, localised changes from tides, winds etc, not to mention dynamic pressure changes from ocean currents, as well as tiny changes in water density.
The idea that a small change could result in some ‘tipping point’ being breached in the face of all these comparatively huge oscillations, and without any prior warnings is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Even if it could be said that small changes made such an event slightly more likely, that in itself wouldn’t have made any discernible difference. Perhaps it would have meant that the earthquake might only have happened in 1, 10 or 1000 years, or perhaps it would have delayed it (or advanced it) by mere microseconds.
Or perhaps the effect of the extra weight of water made the plates shift slightly slower, making the resultant quake less severe than it would have been. Nobody knows, nobody can even hazard a guess.