Comment on Nullius in Verba by Pekka Pirilä
Jim, As far as I have understood GCM’s don’t care the least about no-feedback climate sensitivity. They can produce it as an additional output for people who wish to know that, but that’s the only...
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by Pekka Pirilä
You appear to be assuming that ‘natural’ deviations are always in the direction of cooling. No, I certainly don’t assume that but “variability” means that it’s sometimes up and somtimes down. When the...
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by Peter317
Pekka, That doesn’t explain, “…it’s more likely to have a strong warming period, when we start at a lower temperature”
View ArticleComment on Nullius in Verba by Steve Milesworthy
Peter, I take it you don’t know what the word “preponderance” means.
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by Pekka Pirilä
It does. Change up is the more likely the lower the starting point is – and vice versa. That invloves the assumption that the average has not changed during the period, but that’s what I have already...
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by Joshua
Peter - I believe that Pekka is working from the assumption that “lower temperatures” = below “average.” Is this really so complicated?
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by Joshua
Latimer - The discussion here is w/r/t what Latif said. Do you believe that Latif thinks that the ACO2 influence on post mid-century warming is bounded at 50%? Before you answer, consider that he has...
View ArticleComment on Nullius in Verba by Jim Cripwell
Pekka you write “More specifically it’s certainly not used as an input to the GCM’s. Rather the input may be directly the CO2 concentration and its influence on the radiative energy transfer.” Assuming...
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by Steve Milesworthy
It’s mendacious to claim that somehow Jochem Marotzke is turning sceptic (without realising it) when in the first part of the Der Spiegel interview he says: “The strongest driver of climate change is...
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by MattStat
WebHubTelescope: Chief is very upset that I have reduced his “irreducible complexity” to a simple stochastic behavior characterized by a single parameter — the mean value. You see, all that chaos and...
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by pokerguy
It would be funny were it not so nauseating.
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by MattStat
WebHubTelescope: I really appreciate (NOT) the way that Chief goes after the people that I consider the most sincerely thoughtful and introspective commenters, Fred, Joshua, and Pekka. OK on Fred and...
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by GaryM
“Assumptions,” “estimates,” “Bayesian inferences.” Such is the stuff that “climate science” is made of, and on which we are supposed to decarbonize the world.
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by Bruce
Jim D: “The bottom line for climate is the energy balance to space.” In 1910 to 1940 the balance was off because of natural variability and the earth warmed by .7C. Why did that natural variability...
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by blouis79
Still waiting for a proper description of a theory by which trace amounts of CO2 are supposed to prevent escape of IR to space. Quantification of absorption/reemission/warming in a lab would be useful....
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by Bruce
I think we can agree that attempt by warmers to explain away pre-1950 warming are big failures. But the idea that solar changes stopped after 1050 are absurd. In the UK bright sunshine rose 8% at the...
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by Chief Hydrologist
Amazing. ‘When the frequency of an event varies as a power of some attribute of that event (e.g. its size), the frequency is said to follow a power law.’ We have probability vs wind energy in your...
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by blouis79
Tyndall has been misinterpreted for 150 years. Try reading what he actually wrote and have a good hard think about it. “Failure to transmit” IR waves through a long thin tube does NOT equal “absorption...
View ArticleComment on Week in review 2/11/12 by Jim D
Bruce, another part of that energy balance is the sun. Since the sunspot frequency tripled in the 1910-1950 period, it is reasonable to suppose the sun had something to do with at least 0.2 degrees of...
View ArticleComment on Trends, change points & hypotheses by Chief Hydrologist
Hi Chris, The ocean data is almost entirely suspect. The heat that should be there is showing up in the deep oceans > 700m in ARGO. Whoops. Sensitivity in chaotic systems is not linear. Near the...
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